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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 5

Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo

1 – 1 Full time

45′Yuto TsujiTomoya Fujii
50′Soma Anzai
53′Kosuke Kinoshita
64′Ryo GermainOh Se-hun
77′Shion HommaKota Tawaratsumida
77′MarceloKein Sato
77′Kosuke KinoshitaKazuki Kozuka
86′Takahiro KoKento Hashimoto
89′Yudai ShimamotoKanta Chiba

IAI Stadium Nihondaira, ShizuokaReferee: Hiroki Kasahara, Japan

Shimizu S-pulse 20%
Draw 26%
FC Tokyo 53%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 17
3 Shots on target 5
44 Possession % 56
4 Corners 3
13 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 5
4 Saves 1
255 Accurate passes 350

Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityShimizu S-pulseDrawFC Tokyo
Model15.8%24.4%59.8%
Market21.9%27.0%51.1%
Final20.4%26.3%53.3%
Edge-6.1%-2.6%+8.6%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Tokyo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 0.85.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Tokyo below the model: +8.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Shimizu S-puls ↓ / FC Tokyo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 11% 11% 7% 1 12% 10% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Shimizu S-pulse and FC Tokyo expected goals

Shimizu S-pulse 0.85
FC Tokyo 1.85

Total expected goals: 2.70

Shimizu S-pulse and FC Tokyo attack and defence ratings

Shimizu S-pulse

Attack 0.62 -38%
Defence 0.94 -6%

FC Tokyo

Attack 1.50 +50%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo: result vs prediction

Shimizu S-pulse 1 – 1 FC Tokyo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Tokyo 53.3% 1.88 +8.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.7% 1.97 — —
Both teams to score No 50.6% 1.98 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 79.6% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.2% 2.49 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Shimizu S-pulse20.4%
Draw26.3%
FC Tokyo53.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.7%
Under 2.549.3%
Both teams to scoreYes49.4%
No50.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)46.7%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)79.6%
Handicap -1FC Tokyo win35.7%
Push (exactly one goal)24.1%
Loss40.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
0-211.4%
0-111.3%

Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo stats

Shimizu S-pulse and FC Tokyo recent form

newest first
Shimizu S-pulse LWLLWL
FC Tokyo WWWDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Shimizu S-pulse and FC Tokyo going into this match

league record before kick-off

Shimizu S-pulse record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

FC Tokyo record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Shimizu S-pulse wins 1Draws 6FC Tokyo wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-10-04Shimizu S-pulseFC TokyoJ1 League1-1
2025-04-29FC TokyoShimizu S-pulseJ1 League0-2
2022-08-07FC TokyoShimizu S-pulseJ1 League0-2
2022-05-25Shimizu S-pulseFC TokyoJ1 League0-3
2021-11-03FC TokyoShimizu S-pulseJ1 League4-0
2021-05-26Shimizu S-pulseFC TokyoJ1 League3-0
2020-10-14FC TokyoShimizu S-pulseJ1 League3-1
2020-02-23Shimizu S-pulseFC TokyoJ1 League1-3
2019-07-20Shimizu S-pulseFC TokyoJ1 League0-2
2019-04-06FC TokyoShimizu S-pulseJ1 League2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 21.9%, draw 27.0%, away 51.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.65 3.35 2.00
1xBet 4.35 3.72 1.82
Bet365 4.50 3.40 1.80
BetVictor 4.50 3.60 1.80
Betano 3.70 3.25 2.02
Betfair 4.20 3.40 1.85
Dafabet 4.50 3.60 1.85
Marathonbet 4.25 3.64 1.78
Pinnacle 4.44 3.83 1.82
SBO 3.16 3.04 2.06
Superbet 4.25 3.50 1.82
Unibet 3.70 3.45 1.88
William Hill 4.00 3.40 1.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.25 ▲ +0.73
X 3.45 ▲ +0.05
2 1.82 ▼ -0.23

6 snapshots recorded, from .