J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 4
Shimizu S-pulse
vs
Kashiwa Reysol
0 – 1 Full time
Shimizu S-pulse
26%
Draw
28%
Kashiwa Reysol
46%
Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol
| Probability | Shimizu S-pulse | Draw | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.5% | 26.2% | 54.3% |
| Market | 28.3% | 28.3% | 43.4% |
| Final | 26.1% | 27.8% | 46.1% |
| Edge | -8.8% | -2.1% | +10.8% |
Why Kashiwa Reysol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kashiwa Reysol below the model: +10.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
75%
3+ goals
49%
No goals
8%
Shimizu S-pulse and Kashiwa Reysol expected goals
Shimizu S-pulse
0.94
Kashiwa Reysol
1.71
Total expected goals: 2.65
Shimizu S-pulse and Kashiwa Reysol attack and defence ratings
Shimizu S-pulse
Attack
0.71 -29%
Defence
0.94 -6%
Kashiwa Reysol
Attack
1.39 +39%
Defence
0.94 -6%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol: result vs prediction
Shimizu S-pulse 0 – 1 Kashiwa Reysol
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats
- Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia — team news & stats
- V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats
- Kawasaki Frontale vs JEF United Chiba
- Kyoto Sanga v Avispa Fukuoka — match page
- Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama
- Urawa vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats
- Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima
Before and after this match
Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 46.1% | 2.17 | +10.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shimizu S-pulse | 26.1% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 46.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.9% |
| No | 49.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashiwa Reysol win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 45.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 0-1 | 11.0% | |
| 0-2 | 10.3% |
Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol stats
Shimizu S-pulse and Kashiwa Reysol recent form
| Shimizu S-pulse |
WLLWLD |
| Kashiwa Reysol |
WWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shimizu S-pulse and Kashiwa Reysol going into this match
Shimizu S-pulse record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Kashiwa Reysol record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Shimizu S-pulse wins
2Draws
5Kashiwa Reysol wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Shimizu S-pulse | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 0-2 |
| 2025-05-06 | Kashiwa Reysol | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-20 | Shimizu S-pulse | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2022-05-29 | Kashiwa Reysol | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League | 3-1 |
| 2021-10-16 | Shimizu S-pulse | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2021-03-21 | Kashiwa Reysol | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2020-10-31 | Kashiwa Reysol | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League | 0-0 |
| 2020-09-05 | Shimizu S-pulse | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2018-09-15 | Kashiwa Reysol | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League | 2-3 |
| 2018-04-28 | Shimizu S-pulse | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.3%, draw 28.3%, away 43.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| 1xBet | 3.34 | 3.46 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.45 | 3.35 | 2.22 |
| Marathonbet | 3.26 | 3.38 | 2.13 |
| Pinnacle | 3.39 | 3.32 | 2.20 |
| SBO | 2.96 | 2.97 | 2.20 |
| Superbet | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.17 |
| Unibet | 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.30 ▲ +0.04
X
3.30 —
2
2.15 —
13 snapshots recorded, from .