Garuda Lions
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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 4

V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo

0 – 3 Full time

Peace Stadium, NagasakiReferee: Futoshi Nakamura, Japan

V-varen Nagasaki 22%
Draw 25%
FC Tokyo 53%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityV-varen NagasakiDrawFC Tokyo
Model28.6%23.1%48.3%
Market20.1%25.3%54.5%
Final22.2%24.8%53.0%
Edge+8.4%-2.2%-6.2%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Tokyo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.55.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

V-varen Nagasa ↓ / FC Tokyo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 10% 9% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

V-varen Nagasaki and FC Tokyo expected goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1.55
FC Tokyo 2.05

Total expected goals: 3.60

V-varen Nagasaki and FC Tokyo attack and defence ratings

V-varen Nagasaki

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.11 +11%

FC Tokyo

Attack 1.41 +41%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo: result vs prediction

V-varen Nagasaki 0 – 3 FC Tokyo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Tokyo 53.0% 1.89 -6.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.5% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.3% 1.44 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 77.8% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.6% 1.94 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2V-varen Nagasaki22.2%
Draw24.8%
FC Tokyo53.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.5%
Under 2.530.5%
Both teams to scoreYes69.3%
No30.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)47.0%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)77.8%
Handicap -1FC Tokyo win28.6%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss51.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.6%
1-28.9%
2-26.9%

V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo stats

V-varen Nagasaki and FC Tokyo recent form

newest first
V-varen Nagasaki WLLWWW
FC Tokyo WWDLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

V-varen Nagasaki and FC Tokyo going into this match

league record before kick-off

V-varen Nagasaki record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

FC Tokyo record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

2V-varen Nagasaki wins 0Draws 1FC Tokyo wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2022-06-22FC TokyoV-varen NagasakiEmperor Cup2-3
2018-07-27FC TokyoV-varen NagasakiJ1 League0-1
2018-04-08V-varen NagasakiFC TokyoJ1 League2-5

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 20.1%, draw 25.3%, away 54.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 4.80 3.70 1.70
1xBet 4.66 3.82 1.75
Bet365 5.25 3.60 1.70
BetVictor 4.60 3.70 1.70
Betano 4.70 3.60 1.72
Betfair 4.75 3.80 1.70
Dafabet 4.80 3.70 1.79
Marathonbet 4.55 3.74 1.71
Pinnacle 4.89 3.82 1.70
SBO 3.81 3.28 1.79
Superbet 4.65 3.60 1.72
Unibet 4.40 3.60 1.72
William Hill 4.50 3.50 1.73

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.66 ▲ +0.26
X 3.70 ▲ +0.10
2 1.72 ▼ -0.05

13 snapshots recorded, from .