Mito Hollyhock
vs
Machida Zelvia
1 – 1 Full time
Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia
| Probability | Mito Hollyhock | Draw | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.8% | 16.1% | 77.1% |
| Market | 24.2% | 29.1% | 46.6% |
| Final | 19.9% | 25.9% | 54.2% |
| Edge | -17.4% | -13.0% | +30.4% |
Why Machida Zelvia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Machida Zelvia below the model: +30.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mito Hollyhock and Machida Zelvia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.11
Mito Hollyhock and Machida Zelvia attack and defence ratings
Mito Hollyhock
Machida Zelvia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia: result vs prediction
Mito Hollyhock 1 – 1 Machida Zelvia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
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- Kawasaki Frontale vs JEF United Chiba
- Kyoto Sanga v Avispa Fukuoka — match page
- Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama
- Urawa vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats
- Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima
Before and after this match
Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 54.2% | 1.84 | +30.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.3% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mito Hollyhock | 19.9% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Machida Zelvia | 54.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.7% |
| No | 56.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 55.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 22.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 13.7% |
| 0-3 | 11.3% | |
| 0-1 | 10.4% |
Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia stats
Mito Hollyhock and Machida Zelvia recent form
| Mito Hollyhock |
LWDLLL |
| Machida Zelvia |
WWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mito Hollyhock and Machida Zelvia going into this match
Mito Hollyhock record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Machida Zelvia record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Mito Hollyhock | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 2-2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Machida Zelvia | Mito Hollyhock | J1 League | 2-2 |
| 2023-06-24 | Mito Hollyhock | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 1-1 |
| 2023-03-12 | Machida Zelvia | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League | 3-0 |
| 2022-07-06 | Machida Zelvia | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League | 2-3 |
| 2022-05-08 | Mito Hollyhock | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 0-0 |
| 2021-07-11 | Machida Zelvia | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League | 2-1 |
| 2021-03-21 | Mito Hollyhock | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 3-0 |
| 2020-12-13 | Machida Zelvia | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League | 1-0 |
| 2020-07-19 | Mito Hollyhock | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.2%, draw 29.1%, away 46.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.90 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| 1xBet | 3.89 | 3.32 | 2.05 |
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.85 | 3.15 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.90 | 3.25 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 3.80 | 3.24 | 2.00 |
| Pinnacle | 3.91 | 3.26 | 2.05 |
| SBO | 3.37 | 2.92 | 2.04 |
| Superbet | 3.75 | 3.15 | 2.07 |
| Unibet | 3.65 | 3.15 | 2.00 |
| William Hill | 3.70 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .