Nagoya Grampus
vs
Fagiano Okayama
2 – 1 Full time
Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama
| Probability | Nagoya Grampus | Draw | Fagiano Okayama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.9% | 23.9% | 56.2% |
| Market | 37.4% | 28.8% | 33.8% |
| Final | 33.0% | 27.6% | 39.4% |
| Edge | -17.5% | -4.9% | +22.4% |
Why Fagiano Okayama
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fagiano Okayama below the model: +22.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nagoya Grampus and Fagiano Okayama expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.05
Nagoya Grampus and Fagiano Okayama attack and defence ratings
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama: result vs prediction
Nagoya Grampus 2 – 1 Fagiano Okayama
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
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- Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia — team news & stats
- Shimizu S-pulse v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats
- Kawasaki Frontale vs JEF United Chiba
- Kyoto Sanga v Avispa Fukuoka — match page
- Urawa vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats
- Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima
Before and after this match
Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fagiano Okayama | 39.4% | 2.54 | +22.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.2% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nagoya Grampus | 33.0% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Fagiano Okayama | 39.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% |
| No | 42.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fagiano Okayama win | 34.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 43.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.1% |
Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama stats
Nagoya Grampus and Fagiano Okayama recent form
| Nagoya Grampus |
LWLLLD |
| Fagiano Okayama |
WDWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nagoya Grampus and Fagiano Okayama going into this match
Nagoya Grampus record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Fagiano Okayama record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Nagoya Grampus | Fagiano Okayama | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Fagiano Okayama | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Fagiano Okayama | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-06 | Nagoya Grampus | Fagiano Okayama | J1 League | 0-0 |
| 2021-08-02 | Nagoya Grampus | Fagiano Okayama | Emperor Cup | 1-0 |
| 2017-11-05 | Fagiano Okayama | Nagoya Grampus | J2 League | 0-1 |
| 2017-02-26 | Nagoya Grampus | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League | 2-0 |
| 2012-10-10 | Fagiano Okayama | Nagoya Grampus | Emperor Cup | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.4%, draw 28.8%, away 33.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| 1xBet | 2.52 | 3.36 | 2.84 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.77 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.35 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.46 | 3.28 | 2.77 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | 3.38 | 2.81 |
| SBO | 2.37 | 3.01 | 2.65 |
| Superbet | 2.52 | 3.20 | 2.77 |
| Unibet | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.88 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .