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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 5

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus

3 – 0 Full time

17′Sho Inagaki
45′Takumu KawamuraSébastien Haller
71′Mutsuki Kato
73′Mutsuki KatoShun Ayukawa
73′Hayao KawabeYotaro Nakajima
74′Yuya AsanoHidemasa Koda
74′Ryuji IzumiTomoya Koyamatsu
74′Yuki NogamiYota Sato
80′Akito Suzuki
82′Yuya YamagishiKensuke Nagai
85′Shunki HigashiTakaaki Shichi
87′Taishi Matsumoto
90′Akito SuzukiSota Koshimichi
90′Sébastien Haller
90′Yota Sato

Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, HiroshimaReferee: Hiroyuki Kimura, Japan

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 65%
Draw 20%
Nagoya Grampus 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 3
7 Shots on target 1
49 Possession % 51
2 Corners 1
11 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 3
1 Saves 4
447 Accurate passes 387

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySanfrecce HiroshimaDrawNagoya Grampus
Model71.4%17.6%11.0%
Market62.8%20.9%16.2%
Final65.0%20.1%14.9%
Edge+8.6%-3.3%-5.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Sanfrecce Hiroshima

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 0.94.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Sanfrecce Hiroshima below the model: +8.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sanfrecce Hiro ↓ / Nagoya Grampus → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 8% 2 10% 9% 3 8% 8% 4+ 10% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Nagoya Grampus expected goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2.54
Nagoya Grampus 0.94

Total expected goals: 3.48

Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Nagoya Grampus attack and defence ratings

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 0.62 -38%

Nagoya Grampus

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus: result vs prediction

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3 – 0 Nagoya Grampus

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 65.0% 1.54 +8.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.6% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.8% 1.76 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.1% 1.18 — —
Handicap -1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 50.4% 1.98 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sanfrecce Hiroshima65.0%
Draw20.1%
Nagoya Grampus14.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.6%
Under 2.532.4%
Both teams to scoreYes56.8%
No43.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.1%
12 (either side)79.9%
X2 (draw or away)35.0%
Handicap -1Sanfrecce Hiroshima win50.4%
Push (exactly one goal)21.0%
Loss28.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-010.0%
2-19.3%
3-08.4%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus stats

Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Nagoya Grampus recent form

newest first
Sanfrecce Hiroshima DWDWWW
Nagoya Grampus WLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Nagoya Grampus going into this match

league record before kick-off

Sanfrecce Hiroshima record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Nagoya Grampus record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins 0Draws 5Nagoya Grampus wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-23Sanfrecce HiroshimaNagoya GrampusJ1 League4-2
2026-03-18Nagoya GrampusSanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League2-1
2025-08-27Nagoya GrampusSanfrecce HiroshimaEmperor Cup2-4
2025-06-28Sanfrecce HiroshimaNagoya GrampusJ1 League1-2
2025-04-20Nagoya GrampusSanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League2-1
2024-09-08Sanfrecce HiroshimaNagoya GrampusJ-League Cup1-2
2024-09-04Nagoya GrampusSanfrecce HiroshimaJ-League Cup0-1
2024-08-17Nagoya GrampusSanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League1-2
2024-05-06Sanfrecce HiroshimaNagoya GrampusJ1 League2-3
2023-09-30Sanfrecce HiroshimaNagoya GrampusJ1 League3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 62.8%, draw 20.9%, away 16.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.50 4.20 5.80
1xBet 1.50 4.66 5.94
Bet365 1.50 4.33 6.00
BetVictor 1.50 4.60 5.75
Betano 1.52 4.20 5.80
Betfair 1.47 4.50 5.50
Dafabet 1.52 4.60 6.00
Marathonbet 1.47 4.55 5.80
Pinnacle 1.52 4.77 5.95
SBO 1.45 4.05 5.22
Superbet 1.51 4.50 5.35
Unibet 1.49 4.35 5.40
William Hill 1.50 4.20 5.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.50 ▼ -0.02
X 4.50 ▲ +0.17
2 5.80 ▲ +0.02

6 snapshots recorded, from .