J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
V-varen Nagasaki
vs
Gamba Osaka
2 – 2 Full time
| 36′ | Ryo Hatsuse | ||
| 46′ | K. TakahataS. Yoneda | ||
| 46′ | S. KurataI. Jebali | ||
| 46′ | N. NakatsumiD. Hummet | ||
| 50′ | M. SekiguchiMatheus Jesus | ||
| 61′ | Yamaguchi Hotaru | ||
| 66′ | Kanta Doi | ||
| 66′ | R. YamadaDiego Pituca | ||
| 66′ | ThiagoK. Yasuda | ||
| 68′ | T. SuzukiY. Yoshihara | ||
| 75′ | K. DoiY. Egawa | ||
| 79′ | K. Yasuda | ||
| 82′ | R. HatsuseS. Nakano | ||
| 84′ | Matheus Jesus | ||
| 88′ | S. SasakiA. Okamoto | ||
| 90′ | D. Hummet | ||
| 90′ | I. Jebali |
V-varen Nagasaki
26%
Draw
27%
Gamba Osaka
47%
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 8 |
| 303 | Accurate passes | 396 |
V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka
| Probability | V-varen Nagasaki | Draw | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.2% | 24.7% | 50.1% |
| Market | 26.9% | 27.3% | 45.9% |
| Final | 26.5% | 26.6% | 46.9% |
| Edge | -1.6% | -2.6% | +4.2% |
Why Gamba Osaka
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.28.
- The market prices Gamba Osaka below the model: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
61%
No goals
5%
V-varen Nagasaki and Gamba Osaka expected goals
V-varen Nagasaki
1.28
Gamba Osaka
1.87
Total expected goals: 3.15
V-varen Nagasaki and Gamba Osaka attack and defence ratings
V-varen Nagasaki
Attack
0.96 -4%
Defence
1.21 +21%
Gamba Osaka
Attack
1.17 +17%
Defence
0.95 -5%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka: result vs prediction
V-varen Nagasaki 2 – 2 Gamba Osaka
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Urawa
- Cerezo Osaka v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats
- Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale
- Mito Hollyhock v Kashima — match page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus — team news & stats
- Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo
- Tokyo Verdy v Vissel Kobe — match page
Before and after this match
V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gamba Osaka | 46.9% | 2.13 | +4.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.9% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | V-varen Nagasaki | 26.5% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Gamba Osaka | 46.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% |
| No | 37.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gamba Osaka win | 28.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 49.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.5% |
V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka stats
V-varen Nagasaki and Gamba Osaka recent form
| V-varen Nagasaki |
LWLLWW |
| Gamba Osaka |
DWLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
V-varen Nagasaki and Gamba Osaka going into this match
V-varen Nagasaki record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Gamba Osaka record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
3V-varen Nagasaki wins
2Draws
4Gamba Osaka wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | V-varen Nagasaki | Gamba Osaka | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Gamba Osaka | V-varen Nagasaki | J1 League | 3-2 |
| 2025-02-01 | Gamba Osaka | V-varen Nagasaki | Friendlies Clubs | 5-5 |
| 2019-06-26 | Gamba Osaka | V-varen Nagasaki | J-League Cup | 0-2 |
| 2019-06-19 | V-varen Nagasaki | Gamba Osaka | J-League Cup | 1-4 |
| 2018-11-24 | Gamba Osaka | V-varen Nagasaki | J1 League | 2-1 |
| 2018-04-14 | V-varen Nagasaki | Gamba Osaka | J1 League | 3-0 |
| 2013-09-01 | Gamba Osaka | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League | 1-2 |
| 2013-03-10 | V-varen Nagasaki | Gamba Osaka | J2 League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.9%, draw 27.3%, away 45.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| 1xBet | 3.52 | 3.60 | 2.06 |
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.45 | 3.35 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.65 | 3.55 | 2.06 |
| Marathonbet | 3.44 | 3.52 | 2.01 |
| Pinnacle | 3.50 | 3.77 | 2.07 |
| SBO | 3.07 | 3.16 | 2.05 |
| Superbet | 3.50 | 3.45 | 2.02 |
| Unibet | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.97 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.50 ▲ +0.23
X
3.45 ▼ -0.05
2
2.05 ▼ -0.05
6 snapshots recorded, from .