J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Machida Zelvia
vs
Kawasaki Frontale
2 – 1 Full time
| 59′ | Yasuto Wakizaka | ||
| 60′ | Tete YengiKoki Ogawa | ||
| 64′ | Marcio Augusto da Silva BarbosaAsahi Sasaki | ||
| 64′ | Derik LacerdaKyosuke Mochiyama | ||
| 66′ | Takuma NishimuraYusuke Matsuo | ||
| 66′ | Ryuho KikuchiHotaka Nakamura | ||
| 66′ | Hokuto ShimodaNeta Lavi | ||
| 75′ | Koki Ogawa | ||
| 78′ | Tatsuya ItoKazuya Konno | ||
| 81′ | Koki Ogawa | ||
| 88′ | Kento TachibanadaSo Kawahara | ||
| 88′ | Reon YamaharaYuto Ozeki | ||
| 88′ | Neta LaviRyohei Shirasaki |
Machida Zelvia
52%
Draw
26%
Kawasaki Frontale
22%
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 344 | Accurate passes | 389 |
Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale
| Probability | Machida Zelvia | Draw | Kawasaki Frontale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.4% | 22.6% | 16.0% |
| Market | 49.4% | 26.5% | 24.1% |
| Final | 52.4% | 25.5% | 22.1% |
| Edge | +11.9% | -3.8% | -8.1% |
Why Machida Zelvia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Machida Zelvia below the model: +11.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
58%
No goals
6%
Machida Zelvia and Kawasaki Frontale expected goals
Machida Zelvia
2.04
Kawasaki Frontale
0.96
Total expected goals: 3.00
Machida Zelvia and Kawasaki Frontale attack and defence ratings
Machida Zelvia
Attack
1.49 +49%
Defence
0.62 -38%
Kawasaki Frontale
Attack
1.17 +17%
Defence
0.97 -3%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale: result vs prediction
Machida Zelvia 2 – 1 Kawasaki Frontale
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Urawa
- Cerezo Osaka v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats
- Mito Hollyhock v Kashima — match page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus — team news & stats
- Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo
- Tokyo Verdy v Vissel Kobe — match page
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 52.4% | 1.91 | +11.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.6% | 2.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 52.4% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 22.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 38.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 38.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-0 | 10.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale stats
Machida Zelvia and Kawasaki Frontale recent form
| Machida Zelvia |
DWWWWW |
| Kawasaki Frontale |
WWDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Machida Zelvia and Kawasaki Frontale going into this match
Machida Zelvia record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Kawasaki Frontale record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
2Machida Zelvia wins
3Draws
2Kawasaki Frontale wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Kawasaki Frontale | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Machida Zelvia | Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kawasaki Frontale | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 5-3 |
| 2025-04-06 | Machida Zelvia | Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League | 2-2 |
| 2024-10-05 | Machida Zelvia | Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League | 1-4 |
| 2024-04-07 | Kawasaki Frontale | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2024-01-31 | Kawasaki Frontale | Machida Zelvia | Friendlies Clubs | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.4%, draw 26.5%, away 24.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.90 | 3.45 | 3.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 3.68 | 3.99 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.55 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.86 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.90 | 3.80 | 4.05 |
| SBO | 1.94 | 3.18 | 3.34 |
| Superbet | 1.87 | 3.55 | 4.00 |
| Unibet | 1.88 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.90 ▼ -0.02
X
3.55 ▼ -0.02
2
3.90 ▲ +0.08
6 snapshots recorded, from .