J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Mito Hollyhock
vs
Kashima
4 – 2 Full time
| 5′ | Tomoki Hayakawa | ||
| 8′ | Arata Watanabe | ||
| 21′ | Arata Watanabe | ||
| 45′ | Naomichi UedaKim Tae-hyeon | ||
| 45′ | Matheus BuenoKento Misao | ||
| 45′ | José Élber Pimentel da SilvaAleksandar Čavrić | ||
| 48′ | Arata Watanabe | ||
| 53′ | Léo Ceará | ||
| 55′ | Arata Watanabe | ||
| 62′ | Yoshiki TorikaiChihiro Kato | ||
| 62′ | Ryo NemotoKotaro Uchino | ||
| 68′ | Rikuto HiroseKyosuke Tagawa | ||
| 70′ | Kotaro Uchino | ||
| 80′ | Arata WatanabeMatheus Leiria Dos Santos | ||
| 80′ | Kaito TaniguchiHayata Yamamoto | ||
| 81′ | Gaku ShibasakiKeisuke Tsukui | ||
| 83′ | Léo Ceará | ||
| 90′ | Koshi OsakiRei Ieizumi |
Mito Hollyhock
21%
Draw
25%
Kashima
54%
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 24 | Possession % | 76 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 5 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 1 |
| 194 | Accurate passes | 721 |
Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima
| Probability | Mito Hollyhock | Draw | Kashima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.7% | 21.4% | 64.9% |
| Market | 23.0% | 26.3% | 50.6% |
| Final | 20.7% | 25.1% | 54.2% |
| Edge | -9.4% | -5.0% | +14.3% |
Why Kashima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kashima below the model: +14.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
58%
No goals
6%
Mito Hollyhock and Kashima expected goals
Mito Hollyhock
0.89
Kashima
2.13
Total expected goals: 3.03
Mito Hollyhock and Kashima attack and defence ratings
Mito Hollyhock
Attack
0.77 -23%
Defence
1.18 +18%
Kashima
Attack
1.38 +38%
Defence
0.82 -18%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima: result vs prediction
Mito Hollyhock 4 – 2 Kashima
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Urawa
- Cerezo Osaka v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats
- Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus — team news & stats
- Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo
- Tokyo Verdy v Vissel Kobe — match page
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashima | 54.2% | 1.84 | +14.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Kashima win | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mito Hollyhock | 20.7% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Kashima | 54.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% |
| No | 47.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashima win | 42.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 35.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 11.0% |
| 1-1 | 10.2% | |
| 1-2 | 9.9% |
Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima stats
Mito Hollyhock and Kashima recent form
| Mito Hollyhock |
DLWDLL |
| Kashima |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mito Hollyhock and Kashima going into this match
Mito Hollyhock record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Kashima record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
0Mito Hollyhock wins
2Draws
2Kashima wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Kashima | Mito Hollyhock | J1 League | 3-0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Mito Hollyhock | Kashima | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2024-02-10 | Kashima | Mito Hollyhock | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2015-10-14 | Kashima | Mito Hollyhock | Emperor Cup | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.0%, draw 26.3%, away 50.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.95 | 3.45 | 1.90 |
| 1xBet | 4.35 | 3.72 | 1.82 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.70 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 4.40 | 3.70 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 3.95 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.90 | 3.45 | 2.02 |
| Marathonbet | 4.20 | 3.68 | 1.78 |
| Pinnacle | 4.42 | 3.86 | 1.82 |
| SBO | 3.54 | 3.10 | 1.90 |
| Superbet | 4.15 | 3.65 | 1.80 |
| Unibet | 3.95 | 3.30 | 1.89 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
4.00 ▲ +0.33
X
3.50 ▲ +0.10
2
1.82 ▼ -0.18
6 snapshots recorded, from .