Kyoto Sanga
vs
Avispa Fukuoka
2 – 1 Full time
Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka
| Probability | Kyoto Sanga | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.1% | 27.2% | 48.7% |
| Market | 36.6% | 31.1% | 32.4% |
| Final | 33.4% | 30.1% | 36.4% |
| Edge | -12.5% | -3.8% | +16.3% |
Why Avispa Fukuoka
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 1.07.
- The market prices Avispa Fukuoka below the model: +16.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kyoto Sanga and Avispa Fukuoka expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
Kyoto Sanga and Avispa Fukuoka attack and defence ratings
Kyoto Sanga
Avispa Fukuoka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka: result vs prediction
Kyoto Sanga 2 – 1 Avispa Fukuoka
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
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- Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia — team news & stats
- Shimizu S-pulse v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats
- Kawasaki Frontale vs JEF United Chiba
- Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama
- Urawa vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats
- Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima
Before and after this match
Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avispa Fukuoka | 36.4% | 2.74 | +16.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kyoto Sanga | 33.4% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 36.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% |
| No | 46.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Avispa Fukuoka win | 26.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 50.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 0-1 | 9.9% | |
| 1-2 | 9.5% |
Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka stats
Kyoto Sanga and Avispa Fukuoka recent form
| Kyoto Sanga |
WLDLWL |
| Avispa Fukuoka |
DLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kyoto Sanga and Avispa Fukuoka going into this match
Kyoto Sanga record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Avispa Fukuoka record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Avispa Fukuoka | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Kyoto Sanga | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 2-0 |
| 2025-07-21 | Avispa Fukuoka | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-09 | Kyoto Sanga | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-07 | Avispa Fukuoka | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2024-05-11 | Kyoto Sanga | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 2-3 |
| 2023-08-26 | Kyoto Sanga | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-09 | Avispa Fukuoka | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 2-1 |
| 2022-07-10 | Avispa Fukuoka | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-29 | Kyoto Sanga | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.6%, draw 31.1%, away 32.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.55 | 3.00 | 2.85 |
| 1xBet | 2.58 | 3.12 | 2.94 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.00 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.05 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.52 | 3.05 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.07 | 2.94 |
| SBO | 2.43 | 2.86 | 2.71 |
| Superbet | 2.55 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| Unibet | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.85 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .