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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 5

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga

1 – 1 Full time

9′Jeison Quiñónes
55′Shin MiideraToichi Suzuki
62′Everton MaceióTemma Matsuda
64′Ryuma Nakano
71′Kyo Sato
73′Kaina Tanimura
75′Kei ChinenRiku Yamane
75′Ryotaro TsunodaJordy Croux
83′Kosei Suwama
84′Yusuke IshidaRen Kato
84′Ryuma NakanoShun Nagasawa
90′Rafael PapagaioFuchi Honda
90′Kyo SatoKodai Nagata

Nissan Stadium, YokohamaReferee: Jumpei Iida, Japan

Yokohama F. Marinos 51%
Draw 26%
Kyoto Sanga 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 13
2 Shots on target 6
62 Possession % 38
3 Corners 4
8 Fouls 19
3 Offsides 1
5 Saves 1
326 Accurate passes 160

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityYokohama F. MarinosDrawKyoto Sanga
Model62.1%21.7%16.2%
Market46.9%26.8%26.2%
Final50.7%25.5%23.7%
Edge+15.2%-5.1%-10.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Yokohama F. Marinos

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.03.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Yokohama F. Marinos below the model: +15.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Yokohama F. Ma ↓ / Kyoto Sanga → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 8% 10% 2 10% 10% 5% 3 7% 7% 4+ 6% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Yokohama F. Marinos and Kyoto Sanga expected goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 2.16
Kyoto Sanga 1.03

Total expected goals: 3.19

Yokohama F. Marinos and Kyoto Sanga attack and defence ratings

Yokohama F. Marinos

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Kyoto Sanga

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga: result vs prediction

Yokohama F. Marinos 1 – 1 Kyoto Sanga

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Yokohama F. Marinos 50.7% 1.97 +15.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.7% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.8% 1.73 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.3% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Yokohama F. Marinos win 39.8% 2.51 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Yokohama F. Marinos50.7%
Draw25.5%
Kyoto Sanga23.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%
Both teams to scoreYes57.8%
No42.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.3%
12 (either side)74.5%
X2 (draw or away)49.3%
Handicap -1Yokohama F. Marinos win39.8%
Push (exactly one goal)22.3%
Loss37.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.1%
2-19.9%
2-09.6%

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga stats

Yokohama F. Marinos and Kyoto Sanga recent form

newest first
Yokohama F. Marinos LWWWLW
Kyoto Sanga WWLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Yokohama F. Marinos and Kyoto Sanga going into this match

league record before kick-off

Yokohama F. Marinos record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kyoto Sanga record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

5Yokohama F. Marinos wins 0Draws 3Kyoto Sanga wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-11-09Kyoto SangaYokohama F. MarinosJ1 League0-3
2025-05-17Yokohama F. MarinosKyoto SangaJ1 League0-3
2024-09-13Yokohama F. MarinosKyoto SangaJ1 League1-2
2024-03-17Kyoto SangaYokohama F. MarinosJ1 League2-3
2023-12-03Kyoto SangaYokohama F. MarinosJ1 League3-1
2023-05-07Yokohama F. MarinosKyoto SangaJ1 League4-1
2022-09-14Kyoto SangaYokohama F. MarinosJ1 League1-2
2022-05-25Yokohama F. MarinosKyoto SangaJ1 League2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.9%, draw 26.8%, away 26.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.20 3.40 3.10
1xBet 2.00 3.66 3.66
Bet365 1.95 3.40 3.80
BetVictor 1.95 3.60 3.70
Betano 2.18 3.40 3.15
Betfair 2.00 3.60 3.30
Dafabet 2.00 3.55 3.75
Marathonbet 1.95 3.58 3.58
Pinnacle 1.99 3.76 3.76
SBO 2.20 3.04 2.88
Superbet 1.97 3.50 3.65
Unibet 2.04 3.30 3.40
William Hill 1.95 3.40 3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.00 ▼ -0.20
X 3.50 ▲ +0.12
2 3.58 ▲ +0.38

6 snapshots recorded, from .