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Emperor Cup · Full time ·2nd Round

V-varen Nagasaki vs Ehime FC

3 – 2 Full time

Peace Stadium, Nagasaki

V-varen Nagasaki 67%
Draw 20%
Ehime FC 13%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

V-varen Nagasaki vs Ehime FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: V-varen Nagasaki vs Ehime FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityV-varen NagasakiDrawEhime FC
Model45.3%30.5%24.2%
Market74.0%16.2%9.7%
Final66.9%19.8%13.4%
Edge-28.7%+14.2%+14.4%

Confidence: Low

Why V-varen Nagasaki

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.89.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

V-varen Nagasa ↓ / Ehime FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 8% 1 13% 14% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

V-varen Nagasaki and Ehime FC expected goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1.35
Ehime FC 0.89

Total expected goals: 2.25

V-varen Nagasaki and Ehime FC attack and defence ratings

V-varen Nagasaki

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Ehime FC

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

V-varen Nagasaki vs Ehime FC: result vs prediction

V-varen Nagasaki 3 – 2 Ehime FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 2nd Round fixtures

Emperor Cup

Before and after this match

V-varen Nagasaki vs Ehime FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 V-varen Nagasaki 66.9% 1.50 -28.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 61.0% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score No 54.6% 1.83 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.6% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.8% 1.86 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2V-varen Nagasaki66.9%
Draw19.8%
Ehime FC13.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.0%
Under 2.561.0%
Both teams to scoreYes45.4%
No54.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.6%
12 (either side)80.2%
X2 (draw or away)33.1%
Handicap -1V-varen Nagasaki win22.6%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss53.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.1%
1-012.8%
0-011.8%

V-varen Nagasaki vs Ehime FC stats

V-varen Nagasaki and Ehime FC recent form

newest first
V-varen Nagasaki LLWWWL
Ehime FC WLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

V-varen Nagasaki vs Ehime FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7V-varen Nagasaki wins 2Draws 1Ehime FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-11-08Ehime FCV-varen NagasakiJ2 League0-4
2025-05-03V-varen NagasakiEhime FCJ2 League1-1
2024-11-10V-varen NagasakiEhime FCJ2 League5-2
2024-03-20Ehime FCV-varen NagasakiJ2 League1-2
2024-03-06Ehime FCV-varen NagasakiJ-League Cup3-4
2021-10-10Ehime FCV-varen NagasakiJ2 League0-2
2021-03-13V-varen NagasakiEhime FCJ2 League1-1
2020-10-21Ehime FCV-varen NagasakiJ2 League1-4
2020-07-11V-varen NagasakiEhime FCJ2 League2-0
2019-07-31V-varen NagasakiEhime FCJ2 League1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

V-varen Nagasaki vs Ehime FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 74.0%, draw 16.2%, away 9.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.23 5.50 10.50
1xBet 1.26 5.70 9.55
Bet365 1.22 5.75 8.50
BetVictor 1.22 5.75 10.00
Betano 1.26 5.20 8.25
Betfair 1.20 5.50 10.00
Dafabet 1.27 6.20 9.80
Marathonbet 1.25 5.70 9.60
Pinnacle 1.26 5.60 8.04
SBO 1.25 4.84 7.24
Superbet 1.25 5.75 8.10
Unibet 1.18 6.50 9.50
William Hill 1.25 5.00 9.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.25 ▲ +0.03
X 5.70 ▼ -0.10
2 9.50 ▼ -1.00

3 snapshots recorded, from .