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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 9

Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama

2 – 1 Full time

7′Yota Maejima
36′Kamiya Yuta
45′Kota KawanoAtaru Esaka
45′Kamiya YutaEiji Miyamoto
47′Masato Shigemi
56′Towa YamaneNoah Kenshin Browne
61′Kosuke Shirai
66′Masato YuzawaKaoru Yamawaki
66′Teppei OkaYu Hashimoto
66′Masato ShigemiYuji Kitajima
67′Yuma Tsujioka
76′Yu Hashimoto
78′Kosuke ShiraiMasaya Matsumoto
81′Na Sang-HoRyoga Sato
82′Yuji Kitajima
83′Werik PopoAbdul Hanan Sani Brown
88′Yota MaejimaDaiki Miya
90′Noah Kenshin Browne
90′Abdul Hanan Sani Brown

Best Denki Stadium, FukuokaReferee: Akihiko Ikeuchi

Avispa Fukuoka 28%
Draw 31%
Fagiano Okayama 42%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 10
6 Shots on target 3
41 Possession % 59
2 Corners 3
13 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 5
2 Saves 4
225 Accurate passes 346

Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAvispa FukuokaDrawFagiano Okayama
Model20.5%30.0%49.6%
Market30.4%30.7%38.8%
Final27.9%30.5%41.5%
Edge-2.5%-0.2%+2.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Fagiano Okayama

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.81.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Fagiano Okayama below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Avispa Fukuoka ↓ / Fagiano Okayam → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 14% 11% 1 8% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 66%
3+ goals 38%
No goals 12%

Avispa Fukuoka and Fagiano Okayama expected goals

Avispa Fukuoka 0.81
Fagiano Okayama 1.40

Total expected goals: 2.21

Avispa Fukuoka and Fagiano Okayama attack and defence ratings

Avispa Fukuoka

Attack 0.71 -29%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Fagiano Okayama

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama: result vs prediction

Avispa Fukuoka 2 – 1 Fagiano Okayama

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Fagiano Okayama 41.5% 2.41 +2.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 62.2% 1.61 — —
Both teams to score No 57.1% 1.75 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 72.1% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.4% 1.98 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Avispa Fukuoka27.9%
Draw30.5%
Fagiano Okayama41.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537.8%
Under 2.562.2%
Both teams to scoreYes42.9%
No57.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.5%
12 (either side)69.5%
X2 (draw or away)72.1%
Handicap -1Fagiano Okayama win25.0%
Push (exactly one goal)24.6%
Loss50.4%
Correct score (top 3)0-114.2%
1-113.7%
0-012.3%

Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama stats

Avispa Fukuoka and Fagiano Okayama recent form

newest first
Avispa Fukuoka LLLDLL
Fagiano Okayama WLWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Avispa Fukuoka and Fagiano Okayama going into this match

league record before kick-off

Avispa Fukuoka record

  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

Fagiano Okayama record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Avispa Fukuoka wins 6Draws 2Fagiano Okayama wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-25Fagiano OkayamaAvispa FukuokaJ1 League2-0
2026-02-08Avispa FukuokaFagiano OkayamaJ1 League1-1
2025-06-15Fagiano OkayamaAvispa FukuokaJ1 League0-1
2025-04-25Avispa FukuokaFagiano OkayamaJ1 League1-1
2020-12-02Fagiano OkayamaAvispa FukuokaJ2 League1-1
2020-07-25Avispa FukuokaFagiano OkayamaJ2 League1-0
2019-09-21Avispa FukuokaFagiano OkayamaJ2 League1-1
2019-03-17Fagiano OkayamaAvispa FukuokaJ2 League2-1
2018-10-06Avispa FukuokaFagiano OkayamaJ2 League1-1
2018-05-06Fagiano OkayamaAvispa FukuokaJ2 League2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.4%, draw 30.7%, away 38.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.18 3.08 2.45
Bet365 2.90 3.10 2.38
BetVictor 3.10 3.20 2.40
Betano 3.10 3.00 2.42
Betfair 3.00 3.10 2.30
Dafabet 3.05 3.15 2.50
Marathonbet 3.10 3.00 2.39
Pinnacle 3.18 3.01 2.55
SBO 2.71 2.86 2.43
William Hill 3.00 2.88 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.08 ▼ -0.02
X 3.04 ▲ +0.04
2 2.41 ▲ +0.01

12 snapshots recorded, from .