Avispa Fukuoka
vs
Fagiano Okayama
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fagiano Okayama
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama
| Probability | Avispa Fukuoka | Draw | Fagiano Okayama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.5% | 30.0% | 49.6% |
| Market | 30.4% | 30.7% | 38.8% |
| Final | 27.9% | 30.5% | 41.5% |
| Edge | -10.0% | -0.8% | +10.7% |
Why Fagiano Okayama
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fagiano Okayama below the model: +10.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama match preview
Avispa Fukuoka faces Fagiano Okayama in a J1 League match with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Avispa Fukuoka has struggled, recording three losses followed by a draw and two more losses, while Fagiano Okayama has been more successful, with four wins in their last six matches. According to our model, the probabilities for this fixture indicate a 28% chance for Avispa Fukuoka to win, a 31% chance for a draw, and a 42% chance for Fagiano Okayama to secure victory.
The expected goals suggest a challenging match for Avispa Fukuoka, with an expected goal tally of 0.81 compared to Fagiano Okayama's 1.40. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 14%. Additionally, there is a 38% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 43% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Avispa Fukuoka and Fagiano Okayama expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.20
Avispa Fukuoka and Fagiano Okayama attack and defence ratings
Avispa Fukuoka
Fagiano Okayama
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kashima vs Gamba Osaka — team news & stats
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Vissel Kobe
- Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats
- FC Tokyo v Urawa — match page
- Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia — team news & stats
- JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki
- Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse
- Tokyo Verdy v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
Before and after this match
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fagiano Okayama | 41.5% | 2.41 | +10.7% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avispa Fukuoka | 27.9% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| Fagiano Okayama | 41.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.9% |
| No | 57.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fagiano Okayama win | 24.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 50.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-1 | 13.7% | |
| 0-0 | 12.3% |
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama stats
Avispa Fukuoka and Fagiano Okayama recent form
| Avispa Fukuoka |
LLLDLL |
| Fagiano Okayama |
WLWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Avispa Fukuoka and Fagiano Okayama season so far
Avispa Fukuoka record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Fagiano Okayama record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 2-0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Avispa Fukuoka | Fagiano Okayama | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-15 | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-25 | Avispa Fukuoka | Fagiano Okayama | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2020-12-02 | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka | J2 League | 1-1 |
| 2020-07-25 | Avispa Fukuoka | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League | 1-0 |
| 2019-09-21 | Avispa Fukuoka | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League | 1-1 |
| 2019-03-17 | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka | J2 League | 2-1 |
| 2018-10-06 | Avispa Fukuoka | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League | 1-1 |
| 2018-05-06 | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka | J2 League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.4%, draw 30.7%, away 38.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.18 | 3.08 | 2.45 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.38 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.15 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.39 |
| Pinnacle | 3.18 | 3.01 | 2.55 |
| SBO | 2.71 | 2.86 | 2.43 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 2.88 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .