Tokyo Verdy
vs
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0 – 2 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| Probability | Tokyo Verdy | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.4% | 16.4% | 77.2% |
| Market | 14.4% | 21.4% | 64.3% |
| Final | 12.4% | 20.1% | 67.5% |
| Edge | -8.0% | -5.0% | +12.9% |
Why Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sanfrecce Hiroshima below the model: +12.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima match preview
Tokyo Verdy faces Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League with a challenging outlook, as the model assigns them a mere 7% chance of victory compared to Sanfrecce's 76%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-2, occurring with a 13% probability. Tokyo Verdy's recent form shows a struggle, with their last five matches resulting in one win and four losses, while Sanfrecce Hiroshima has been more successful, winning four of their last five games.
In terms of expected goals, Tokyo Verdy is estimated to score 0.69, while Sanfrecce Hiroshima is projected at 2.52. There is a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams scoring is at 47%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tokyo Verdy and Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Tokyo Verdy and Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack and defence ratings
Tokyo Verdy
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kashima vs Gamba Osaka — team news & stats
- Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats
- Avispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama — match page
- FC Tokyo v Urawa — match page
- Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia — team news & stats
- JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki
- Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse
- Kawasaki Frontale v Nagoya Grampus — match page
Before and after this match
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 67.5% | 1.48 | +12.9% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.6% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tokyo Verdy | 12.4% |
| Draw | 20.1% | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 67.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 32.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 55.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 22.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 14.6% |
| 0-3 | 11.7% | |
| 0-1 | 11.4% |
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima stats
Tokyo Verdy and Sanfrecce Hiroshima recent form
| Tokyo Verdy |
DLDDLL |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
WWWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tokyo Verdy and Sanfrecce Hiroshima season so far
Tokyo Verdy record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.4%, draw 21.4%, away 64.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.47 | 4.52 | 1.49 |
| Bet365 | 6.50 | 3.90 | 1.45 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 4.33 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 6.80 | 4.05 | 1.47 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
| Dafabet | 6.40 | 4.60 | 1.50 |
| Marathonbet | 6.30 | 4.40 | 1.45 |
| Pinnacle | 6.60 | 4.44 | 1.47 |
| SBO | 5.61 | 4.00 | 1.43 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .