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J1 League · ·Matchday 11

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima

Garuda Lions Prediction: Kashima

1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability

Bet on Kashima

Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, Kameoka

Kyoto Sanga 23%
Draw 25%
Kashima 53%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Kashima wins
53%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
95%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
59%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
10% of simulated outcomes

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKyoto SangaDrawKashima
Model18.8%23.0%58.2%
Market23.7%25.4%50.8%
Final22.5%24.8%52.7%
Edge-5.0%-2.4%+7.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Kashima

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.09.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Kashima below the model: +7.4 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima match preview

Kyoto Sanga faces Kashima in an upcoming J1 League match with a kickoff scheduled for October 21, 2026. According to our model, Kyoto Sanga has a 25% chance of winning, while Kashima is favored with a 51% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with a 10% likelihood. Expected goals for Kyoto Sanga stand at 1.28, whereas Kashima's expected goals are higher at 1.91.

Recent form shows Kyoto Sanga with a mixed record of L-W-W-L-L-D, while Kashima has recorded two wins, a draw, and three losses in their last six matches. The model also suggests a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kyoto Sanga ↓ / Kashima → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 6% 1 11% 10% 7% 5% 2 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Kyoto Sanga and Kashima expected goals

Kyoto Sanga 1.09
Kashima 2.04

Total expected goals: 3.13

Kyoto Sanga and Kashima attack and defence ratings

Kyoto Sanga

Attack 0.79 -21%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Kashima

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kashima 52.7% 1.90 +7.4% 1.88
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.6% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.8% 1.70 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 77.5% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.8% 2.39 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kyoto Sanga22.5%
Draw24.8%
Kashima52.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%
Both teams to scoreYes58.8%
No41.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)47.3%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)77.5%
Handicap -1Kashima win35.9%
Push (exactly one goal)22.3%
Loss41.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.7%
1-29.9%
0-29.1%
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Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima stats

Kyoto Sanga and Kashima recent form

newest first
Kyoto Sanga LLWWLL
Kashima WWWDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kyoto Sanga and Kashima season so far

league record

Kyoto Sanga record

  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

Kashima record

  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

1Kyoto Sanga wins 4Draws 4Kashima wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-10-25Kyoto SangaKashimaJ1 League1-1
2025-04-06KashimaKyoto SangaJ1 League3-4
2024-11-17Kyoto SangaKashimaJ1 League0-0
2024-04-13KashimaKyoto SangaJ1 League1-0
2023-07-01KashimaKyoto SangaJ1 League0-0
2023-02-18Kyoto SangaKashimaJ1 League0-2
2022-09-10Kyoto SangaKashimaJ1 League1-1
2022-06-18KashimaKyoto SangaJ1 League1-0
2013-10-14KashimaKyoto SangaEmperor Cup2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 23.7%, draw 25.4%, away 50.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.96 3.80 1.88
BetVictor 4.00 3.70 1.80
Marathonbet 3.85 3.70 1.83
Pinnacle 4.09 3.73 1.85
William Hill 3.80 3.50 1.85
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.96 —
X 3.70 —
2 1.85 —

3 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Kashima Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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