Fagiano Okayama
vs
Mito Hollyhock
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fagiano Okayama
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock
| Probability | Fagiano Okayama | Draw | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.9% | 29.3% | 23.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.9% | 29.3% | 23.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Fagiano Okayama
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock match preview
Fagiano Okayama is favored to win against Mito Hollyhock, with a 56% probability according to our model. The expected goals for Fagiano Okayama stand at 1.73, while Mito Hollyhock is projected to score 0.89. Recent form shows Fagiano Okayama winning three of their last six matches, while Mito Hollyhock has struggled, securing only one victory in their last six games.
The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Fagiano Okayama, with a probability of 11%. Additionally, there is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams are given a 50% likelihood of scoring at least once. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate confidence in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fagiano Okayama and Mito Hollyhock expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
Fagiano Okayama and Mito Hollyhock attack and defence ratings
Fagiano Okayama
Mito Hollyhock
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka
- FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats
- Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — match page
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy
Before and after this match
Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fagiano Okayama | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fagiano Okayama | 46.9% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Mito Hollyhock | 23.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.1% |
| No | 51.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fagiano Okayama win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% | |
| 0-0 | 10.4% |
Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock stats
Fagiano Okayama and Mito Hollyhock recent form
| Fagiano Okayama |
LLWLWW |
| Mito Hollyhock |
LLLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fagiano Okayama and Mito Hollyhock season so far
Fagiano Okayama record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Mito Hollyhock record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | Mito Hollyhock | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-20 | Fagiano Okayama | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League | 1-0 |
| 2023-07-01 | Fagiano Okayama | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-05 | Mito Hollyhock | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League | 1-1 |
| 2022-06-25 | Mito Hollyhock | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League | 1-1 |
| 2022-05-04 | Fagiano Okayama | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League | 2-1 |
| 2021-10-24 | Mito Hollyhock | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League | 1-1 |
| 2021-04-17 | Fagiano Okayama | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League | 1-2 |
| 2020-10-04 | Mito Hollyhock | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League | 0-0 |
| 2020-08-08 | Fagiano Okayama | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.