FC Tokyo
vs
Kashiwa Reysol
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Tokyo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol
| Probability | FC Tokyo | Draw | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.8% | 17.6% | 13.6% |
| Market | 43.7% | 26.9% | 29.4% |
| Final | 50.0% | 24.5% | 25.4% |
| Edge | +25.1% | -9.3% | -15.8% |
Why FC Tokyo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Tokyo below the model: +25.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol match preview
FC Tokyo enters this match with strong recent form, having won five of their last six matches, while Kashiwa Reysol has won four of their last six but suffered two consecutive losses. According to our model, FC Tokyo has a 56% probability of winning, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1, which occurs at a 10% probability. The expected goals for FC Tokyo are 2.17, compared to Kashiwa Reysol's 1.30.
In terms of scoring, there is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams are expected to score with a 65% probability. The head-to-head record between these teams shows one win each in their last two encounters, indicating a competitive matchup ahead. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.85
FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol attack and defence ratings
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats
- Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — match page
- Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy
Before and after this match
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tokyo | 50.0% | 2.00 | +25.1% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tokyo | 50.0% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 25.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% |
| No | 35.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win | 48.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 31.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol stats
FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol recent form
| FC Tokyo |
WWWWWW |
| Kashiwa Reysol |
LWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol season so far
FC Tokyo record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kashiwa Reysol record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Kashiwa Reysol | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 1-3 |
| 2026-02-28 | FC Tokyo | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 0-2 |
| 2025-07-05 | Kashiwa Reysol | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-11 | FC Tokyo | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2024-07-30 | FC Tokyo | Kashiwa Reysol | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-06 | Kashiwa Reysol | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 3-2 |
| 2024-05-11 | FC Tokyo | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 3-3 |
| 2023-07-01 | FC Tokyo | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-26 | Kashiwa Reysol | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-27 | Kashiwa Reysol | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 3-6 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.7%, draw 26.9%, away 29.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.20 | 3.53 | 3.24 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.13 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.44 | 3.16 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | 3.55 | 3.29 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .