Sanfrecce Hiroshima
vs
Shimizu S-pulse
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse
| Probability | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Draw | Shimizu S-pulse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73.3% | 18.2% | 8.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 73.3% | 18.2% | 8.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse match preview
Sanfrecce Hiroshima enters this match with a strong recent form, having won four of their last five games, while Shimizu S-pulse has also shown resilience, recording three wins in their last five. According to our model, Sanfrecce Hiroshima holds a 73% probability of winning, with an expected goals tally of 2.33 compared to Shimizu S-pulse's 0.69. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0 in favor of Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
In terms of goal expectations, there is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams have a 46% likelihood of scoring. The last three head-to-head encounters show a balanced competition, with each team securing one win and one draw. Overall, the confidence grade for this matchup stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Shimizu S-pulse expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Shimizu S-pulse attack and defence ratings
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-pulse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka
- Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — match page
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga
- Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos
- Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba — match page
- Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki — team news & stats
- FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.4% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 73.3% |
| Draw | 18.2% | |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 8.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.7% |
| No | 54.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 50.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 26.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 3-0 | 10.3% |
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse stats
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Shimizu S-pulse recent form
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
WWWWWL |
| Shimizu S-pulse |
DWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Shimizu S-pulse season so far
Sanfrecce Hiroshima record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Shimizu S-pulse record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Shimizu S-pulse | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Shimizu S-pulse | Emperor Cup | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.