Kyoto Sanga
vs
Shimizu S-pulse
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kyoto Sanga
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.17.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse
| Probability | Kyoto Sanga | Draw | Shimizu S-pulse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.3% | 25.6% | 24.2% |
| Market | 35.5% | 28.8% | 35.7% |
| Final | 39.2% | 28.0% | 32.8% |
| Edge | +3.7% | -0.8% | -2.9% |
Why Kyoto Sanga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.17.
- The market prices Kyoto Sanga below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.8% per unit staked (our 39.2% × 2.70 − 1).
Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse match preview
Kyoto Sanga faces Shimizu S-pulse in a J1 League matchup with kickoff set for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Kyoto Sanga has a 47% probability of winning, while Shimizu S-pulse stands at 27%, and a draw is estimated at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Kyoto Sanga, with a 9% chance of occurring. The expected goals for Kyoto Sanga is 1.67, compared to Shimizu S-pulse's 1.23.
In terms of recent form, Kyoto Sanga has recorded a draw, followed by two losses, a win, and another loss, while Shimizu S-pulse has shown stronger performance with two losses, a draw, and two consecutive wins. The head-to-head record shows Kyoto Sanga with no wins, one draw, and one loss against Shimizu S-pulse in their last two encounters. Both teams are expected to score, with a 58% probability, and there is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kyoto Sanga and Shimizu S-pulse expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Kyoto Sanga and Shimizu S-pulse attack and defence ratings
Kyoto Sanga
Shimizu S-pulse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
- Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page
Before and after this match
Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kyoto Sanga | 39.2% | 2.55 | +3.7% | 2.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kyoto Sanga | 39.2% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 32.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% |
| No | 41.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kyoto Sanga win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse stats
Kyoto Sanga and Shimizu S-pulse recent form
| Kyoto Sanga |
DDLLWW |
| Shimizu S-pulse |
LLDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kyoto Sanga and Shimizu S-pulse season so far
Kyoto Sanga record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Shimizu S-pulse record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Kyoto Sanga | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Shimizu S-pulse | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.5%, draw 28.8%, away 35.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.64 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.10 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 3.32 | 2.57 |
| Pinnacle | 2.69 | 3.24 | 2.71 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.60 |