Fagiano Okayama
vs
FC Tokyo
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Tokyo
0 – 2 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 0.64.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo
| Probability | Fagiano Okayama | Draw | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8.7% | 19.4% | 71.9% |
| Market | 26.7% | 27.6% | 45.7% |
| Final | 22.2% | 25.6% | 52.3% |
| Edge | -4.5% | -2.1% | +6.6% |
Why FC Tokyo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Tokyo below our published probability: +6.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.2% per unit staked (our 52.3% × 2.09 − 1).
Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo match preview
Fagiano Okayama faces FC Tokyo in the J1 League with a kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Fagiano Okayama has a 22% chance of winning, while FC Tokyo stands at 52%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, occurring with a 14% probability. The expected goals for Fagiano Okayama are 0.64, in contrast to FC Tokyo's 2.17.
In terms of recent form, Fagiano Okayama has recorded a mixed set of results with a sequence of L-W-L-L-W-L, whereas FC Tokyo is on a strong run, having won their last six matches, including a draw. The model suggests a 53% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance that both teams will score, indicating a potentially high-scoring match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fagiano Okayama and FC Tokyo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
Fagiano Okayama and FC Tokyo attack and defence ratings
Fagiano Okayama
FC Tokyo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse — team news & stats
- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page
Before and after this match
Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tokyo | 52.3% | 1.91 | +6.6% | 2.09 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.8% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fagiano Okayama | 22.2% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| FC Tokyo | 52.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.7% |
| No | 57.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win | 48.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 28.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 14.2% |
| 0-1 | 12.2% | |
| 0-3 | 10.3% |
Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo stats
Fagiano Okayama and FC Tokyo recent form
| Fagiano Okayama |
LWLLWL |
| FC Tokyo |
WDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fagiano Okayama and FC Tokyo season so far
Fagiano Okayama record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Tokyo record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.7%, draw 27.6%, away 45.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.53 | 3.49 | 2.09 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.08 |
| Marathonbet | 3.44 | 3.40 | 2.04 |
| Pinnacle | 3.65 | 3.38 | 2.08 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.00 |