J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 14
Yokohama F. Marinos
vs
Fagiano Okayama
1 – 1 Full time
| 42′ | Noah Kenshin Browne | ||
| 44′ | Noah Kenshin Browne | ||
| 45′ | Tomoki Kondo | ||
| 46′ | Kosei Suwama | ||
| 49′ | Daiya TonoTaisei Inoue | ||
| 61′ | Takuto KimuraJun Amano | ||
| 61′ | Toichi SuzukiRyotaro Tsunoda | ||
| 65′ | Haruka MotoyamaMasaya Matsumoto | ||
| 65′ | Kota KawanoNa Sang-Ho | ||
| 69′ | Yoshitake Suzuki | ||
| 70′ | Kosuke MatsumuraTakuya Kida | ||
| 70′ | Ryo MiyaichiGeorge Onaiwu | ||
| 71′ | Noah Kenshin BrowneLéo Gaúcho | ||
| 78′ | Towa YamaneRyo Takeuchi | ||
| 79′ | Yoshitake SuzukiYota Fujii |
Yokohama F. Marinos
43%
Draw
27%
Fagiano Okayama
30%
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 58 | Possession % | 42 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 21 |
| 0 | Offsides | 11 |
| 4 | Saves | 1 |
| 384 | Accurate passes | 240 |
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama
| Probability | Yokohama F. Marinos | Draw | Fagiano Okayama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.7% | 24.1% | 16.2% |
| Market | 37.6% | 27.6% | 34.8% |
| Final | 43.1% | 26.7% | 30.2% |
| Edge | +5.5% | -0.9% | -4.6% |
Why Yokohama F. Marinos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.89.
- The market prices Yokohama F. Marinos below our published probability: +5.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
Yokohama F. Marinos and Fagiano Okayama expected goals
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.89
Fagiano Okayama
0.89
Total expected goals: 2.78
Yokohama F. Marinos and Fagiano Okayama attack and defence ratings
Yokohama F. Marinos
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
0.79 -21%
Fagiano Okayama
Attack
0.87 -13%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama: result vs prediction
Yokohama F. Marinos 1 – 1 Fagiano Okayama
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Shimizu S-pulse v Tokyo Verdy — match page
- Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga
- Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki
- FC Tokyo vs Kashima — team news & stats
- Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale — match page
- Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats
- Vissel Kobe vs Urawa
- Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka
Before and after this match
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 43.1% | 2.32 | +5.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.4% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 43.1% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Fagiano Okayama | 30.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% |
| No | 48.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yokohama F. Marinos win | 35.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 40.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-0 | 11.1% | |
| 1-0 | 10.7% |
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama stats
Yokohama F. Marinos and Fagiano Okayama recent form
| Yokohama F. Marinos |
WDDDDW |
| Fagiano Okayama |
LLWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Yokohama F. Marinos and Fagiano Okayama going into this match
Yokohama F. Marinos record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fagiano Okayama record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
0Yokohama F. Marinos wins
0Draws
2Fagiano Okayama wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Fagiano Okayama | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Fagiano Okayama | Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.6%, draw 27.6%, away 34.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.58 | 3.42 | 2.72 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.51 | 3.34 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.52 | 3.49 | 2.83 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 3.13 | 2.62 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.50 ▼ -0.15
X
3.40 ▲ +0.09
2
2.70 ▲ +0.12
12 snapshots recorded, from .