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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 14

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki

1 – 1 Full time

8′Ryogo Yamasaki
11′Kenshin Yasuda
37′Motoki Hasegawa
45′Ikki AraiRyosuke Shindo
45′Masato YuzawaMasato Shigemi
58′Ryogo YamasakiTenmu Matsumoto
63′Shintaro NagoKohei Okuno
63′Yu HashimotoSonosuke Sato
63′Werik PopoShosei Usui
66′Teppei Oka
69′Motoki HasegawaDiego Pituca
69′Kenshin YasudaYuto Iwasaki
72′Shosei Usui
81′Matheus JesusThiago Santana
86′Keiya ShiihashiHiroki Akino

Best Denki Stadium, FukuokaReferee: Koji Takasaki

Avispa Fukuoka 38%
Draw 28%
V-varen Nagasaki 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 6
3 Shots on target 1
62 Possession % 38
4 Corners 2
16 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 1
0 Saves 2
461 Accurate passes 255

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAvispa FukuokaDrawV-varen Nagasaki
Model23.7%27.8%48.5%
Market43.0%28.4%28.6%
Final38.2%28.2%33.5%
Edge-4.8%-0.2%+5.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Avispa Fukuoka ↓ / V-varen Nagasa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 11% 9% 1 13% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Avispa Fukuoka and V-varen Nagasaki expected goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1.02
V-varen Nagasaki 1.57

Total expected goals: 2.59

Avispa Fukuoka and V-varen Nagasaki attack and defence ratings

Avispa Fukuoka

Attack 0.65 -35%
Defence 1.28 +28%

V-varen Nagasaki

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki: result vs prediction

Avispa Fukuoka 1 – 1 V-varen Nagasaki

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Avispa Fukuoka 38.2% 2.62 -4.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.2% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.9% 1.93 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.8% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 76.5% 1.31 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Avispa Fukuoka38.2%
Draw28.2%
V-varen Nagasaki33.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.8%
Under 2.552.2%
Both teams to scoreYes51.9%
No48.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.5%
12 (either side)71.8%
X2 (draw or away)61.8%
Handicap -1Avispa Fukuoka win9.0%
Push (exactly one goal)14.5%
Loss76.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.3%
0-110.5%
1-29.4%

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki stats

Avispa Fukuoka and V-varen Nagasaki recent form

newest first
Avispa Fukuoka LLLLWL
V-varen Nagasaki LLWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Avispa Fukuoka and V-varen Nagasaki going into this match

league record before kick-off

Avispa Fukuoka record

  • They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.

V-varen Nagasaki record

  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Avispa Fukuoka wins 1Draws 4V-varen Nagasaki wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-11Avispa FukuokaV-varen NagasakiJ1 League1-0
2026-03-15V-varen NagasakiAvispa FukuokaJ1 League1-0
2022-07-13Avispa FukuokaV-varen NagasakiEmperor Cup2-0
2020-09-27V-varen NagasakiAvispa FukuokaJ2 League1-3
2020-07-04Avispa FukuokaV-varen NagasakiJ2 League1-2
2019-09-07V-varen NagasakiAvispa FukuokaJ2 League1-0
2019-03-02Avispa FukuokaV-varen NagasakiJ2 League0-0
2017-08-16Avispa FukuokaV-varen NagasakiJ2 League0-1
2017-04-15V-varen NagasakiAvispa FukuokaJ2 League0-1
2015-11-29Avispa FukuokaV-varen NagasakiJ2 League1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.0%, draw 28.4%, away 28.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.15 3.43 3.45
Bet365 2.20 3.20 3.25
BetVictor 2.20 3.40 3.30
Betano 2.18 3.25 3.30
Betfair 2.15 3.30 3.30
Dafabet 2.23 3.40 3.40
Marathonbet 2.09 3.34 3.36
Pinnacle 2.23 3.43 3.38
SBO 2.20 3.00 2.94
William Hill 2.10 3.20 3.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.19 ▲ +0.13
X 3.32 ▼ -0.08
2 3.30 ▼ -0.18

10 snapshots recorded, from .