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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 14

FC Tokyo vs Kashima

2 – 0 Full time

3′Rio Omori
28′Shuto Nagano
37′Kashif BangnagandeKento Hashimoto
45′Yuta Higuchi
45′Yuta HiguchiGaku Shibasaki
56′José Élber Pimentel da SilvaAleksandar Čavrić
60′Motoki Nagakura
62′Yuma Suzuki
70′Teruhito NakagawaDani Gómez
70′Kota TawaratsumidaShion Homma
70′Matheus BuenoKento Misao
70′Ryoya OgawaHaruki Hayashi
81′Dani Gómez
84′Ryuta KoikeHaruto Matsumoto
90′Motoki NagakuraMarcelo
90′Dani Gómez
90′Dani Gómez

Ajinomoto Stadium, ChofuReferee: Akihiko Ikeuchi

FC Tokyo 55%
Draw 23%
Kashima 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 7
3 Shots on target 1
38 Possession % 62
5 Corners 7
16 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2
2 Saves 2
274 Accurate passes 469

FC Tokyo vs Kashima overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Tokyo vs Kashima

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC TokyoDrawKashima
Model80.0%13.5%6.5%
Market46.0%26.6%27.4%
Final54.5%23.3%22.1%
Edge+8.5%-3.3%-5.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Tokyo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.89 vs 0.77.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Tokyo below our published probability: +8.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Tokyo ↓ / Kashima → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 11% 8% 3 10% 8% 4+ 15% 12%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

FC Tokyo and Kashima expected goals

FC Tokyo 2.89
Kashima 0.77

Total expected goals: 3.67

FC Tokyo and Kashima attack and defence ratings

FC Tokyo

Attack 1.85 +85%
Defence 0.39 -61%

Kashima

Attack 1.52 +52%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Tokyo vs Kashima: result vs prediction

FC Tokyo 2 – 0 Kashima

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

FC Tokyo vs Kashima markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Tokyo 54.5% 1.83 +8.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.9% 1.41 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.3% 1.95 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.9% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 FC Tokyo win 61.0% 1.64 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Tokyo54.5%
Draw23.3%
Kashima22.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.9%
Under 2.529.1%
Both teams to scoreYes51.3%
No48.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.9%
12 (either side)76.7%
X2 (draw or away)45.5%
Handicap -1FC Tokyo win61.0%
Push (exactly one goal)18.8%
Loss20.1%
Correct score (top 3)2-010.7%
3-010.4%
2-18.3%

FC Tokyo vs Kashima stats

FC Tokyo and Kashima recent form

newest first
FC Tokyo WWDWWW
Kashima WLDWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Tokyo and Kashima going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Tokyo record

  • They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.1 at home.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kashima record

  • They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

FC Tokyo vs Kashima head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3FC Tokyo wins 2Draws 5Kashima wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-23KashimaFC TokyoJ1 League1-0
2026-02-07FC TokyoKashimaJ1 League1-1
2025-08-10FC TokyoKashimaJ1 League0-1
2025-03-01KashimaFC TokyoJ1 League2-0
2024-07-20KashimaFC TokyoJ1 League2-1
2024-04-07FC TokyoKashimaJ1 League2-0
2023-07-16FC TokyoKashimaJ1 League1-3
2023-05-20KashimaFC TokyoJ1 League1-1
2022-10-01KashimaFC TokyoJ1 League0-1
2022-05-29FC TokyoKashimaJ1 League3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Tokyo vs Kashima odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.0%, draw 26.6%, away 27.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.02 3.64 3.60
Bet365 2.00 3.40 3.60
BetVictor 2.05 3.70 3.40
Betano 2.05 3.50 3.35
Betfair 2.05 3.60 3.30
Dafabet 2.11 3.55 3.50
Marathonbet 1.97 3.54 3.50
Pinnacle 2.08 3.69 3.52
SBO 2.05 3.22 3.02
William Hill 2.00 3.30 3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.05 —
X 3.54 —
2 3.45 ▲ +0.10

13 snapshots recorded, from .