J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 14
Kashiwa Reysol
vs
Kawasaki Frontale
2 – 1 Full time
Kashiwa Reysol
46%
Draw
23%
Kawasaki Frontale
30%
Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale
| Probability | Kashiwa Reysol | Draw | Kawasaki Frontale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.4% | 19.3% | 24.3% |
| Market | 42.9% | 24.7% | 32.4% |
| Final | 46.3% | 23.4% | 30.4% |
| Edge | +3.4% | -1.4% | -2.0% |
Why Kashiwa Reysol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.77.
- The market prices Kashiwa Reysol below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
94%
3+ goals
82%
No goals
2%
Kashiwa Reysol and Kawasaki Frontale expected goals
Kashiwa Reysol
2.65
Kawasaki Frontale
1.77
Total expected goals: 4.42
Kashiwa Reysol and Kawasaki Frontale attack and defence ratings
Kashiwa Reysol
Attack
1.56 +56%
Defence
0.95 -5%
Kawasaki Frontale
Attack
1.42 +42%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale: result vs prediction
Kashiwa Reysol 2 – 1 Kawasaki Frontale
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Shimizu S-pulse v Tokyo Verdy — match page
- Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats
- Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki
- FC Tokyo vs Kashima — team news & stats
- Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats
- Vissel Kobe vs Urawa
- Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka
Before and after this match
Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 46.3% | 2.16 | +3.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.6% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.6% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 46.3% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 30.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.5% |
| No | 22.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashiwa Reysol win | 37.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 43.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.5% |
| 3-1 | 6.6% | |
| 2-2 | 6.6% |
Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale stats
Kashiwa Reysol and Kawasaki Frontale recent form
| Kashiwa Reysol |
WWDLWW |
| Kawasaki Frontale |
LWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kashiwa Reysol and Kawasaki Frontale going into this match
Kashiwa Reysol record
- They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kawasaki Frontale record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Kashiwa Reysol wins
5Draws
3Kawasaki Frontale wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Kashiwa Reysol | Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Kawasaki Frontale | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 5-3 |
| 2025-10-12 | Kashiwa Reysol | Kawasaki Frontale | J-League Cup | 4-1 |
| 2025-10-08 | Kawasaki Frontale | Kashiwa Reysol | J-League Cup | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Kawasaki Frontale | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 4-4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Kashiwa Reysol | Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2024-07-20 | Kashiwa Reysol | Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League | 2-3 |
| 2024-05-25 | Kawasaki Frontale | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2023-12-09 | Kawasaki Frontale | Kashiwa Reysol | Emperor Cup | 0-0 |
| 2023-10-29 | Kashiwa Reysol | Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.9%, draw 24.7%, away 32.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.80 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.23 | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.13 | 3.80 | 2.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.95 | 3.06 |
| SBO | 2.21 | 3.37 | 2.62 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.19 ▼ -0.02
X
3.80 ▼ -0.02
2
2.90 ▲ +0.07
12 snapshots recorded, from .