Gamba Osaka
vs
Cerezo Osaka
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gamba Osaka
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.13.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka
| Probability | Gamba Osaka | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.6% | 25.5% | 22.9% |
| Market | 41.7% | 27.0% | 31.3% |
| Final | 44.2% | 26.6% | 29.2% |
| Edge | +2.5% | -0.4% | -2.1% |
Why Gamba Osaka
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Gamba Osaka below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.33, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.0% per unit staked (our 44.2% × 2.33 − 1).
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka match preview
Gamba Osaka is set to face Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League, with kickoff scheduled for November 8, 2026. According to our model, Gamba Osaka has a 55% probability of winning, while Cerezo Osaka stands at 22%, and a draw is estimated at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Gamba Osaka, with an expected goals tally of 2.04 for Gamba Osaka and 1.25 for Cerezo Osaka.
In terms of recent form, Gamba Osaka has recorded a draw, win, draw, loss, win, and loss in their last six matches, while Cerezo Osaka has a record of loss, draw, draw, loss, draw, and win. Both teams are showing signs of scoring potential, with a 64% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gamba Osaka and Cerezo Osaka expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Gamba Osaka and Cerezo Osaka attack and defence ratings
Gamba Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats
- Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki
- FC Tokyo vs Kashima — team news & stats
- Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale — match page
- Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats
- Vissel Kobe vs Urawa
- JEF United Chiba v Mito Hollyhock — match page
Before and after this match
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gamba Osaka | 44.2% | 2.26 | +2.5% | 2.33 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.4% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gamba Osaka | 44.2% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Cerezo Osaka | 29.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% |
| No | 42.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gamba Osaka win | 29.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 48.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka stats
Gamba Osaka and Cerezo Osaka recent form
| Gamba Osaka |
DDWDLW |
| Cerezo Osaka |
LDDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gamba Osaka and Cerezo Osaka season so far
Gamba Osaka record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
Cerezo Osaka record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Gamba Osaka | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Cerezo Osaka | Gamba Osaka | J1 League | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Cerezo Osaka | Gamba Osaka | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-14 | Gamba Osaka | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 2-5 |
| 2024-10-02 | Cerezo Osaka | Gamba Osaka | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-06 | Gamba Osaka | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-28 | Cerezo Osaka | Gamba Osaka | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2023-06-18 | Cerezo Osaka | Gamba Osaka | J-League Cup | 0-1 |
| 2023-05-03 | Gamba Osaka | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2023-03-26 | Gamba Osaka | Cerezo Osaka | J-League Cup | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.7%, draw 27.0%, away 31.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.25 | 3.57 | 3.10 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.33 | 3.55 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.19 | 3.48 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.29 | 3.55 | 3.03 |
| SBO | 2.26 | 3.18 | 2.68 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .