Machida Zelvia
vs
Gamba Osaka
Garuda Lions Prediction: Machida Zelvia
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.93.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka
| Probability | Machida Zelvia | Draw | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.4% | 19.8% | 12.8% |
| Market | 53.7% | 24.6% | 21.7% |
| Final | 57.1% | 23.4% | 19.5% |
| Edge | +3.4% | -1.2% | -2.2% |
Why Machida Zelvia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Machida Zelvia below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.3% per unit staked (our 57.1% × 1.79 − 1).
Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka match preview
Machida Zelvia enters this match against Gamba Osaka with a strong probability of winning at 67%. Their recent form shows a solid performance with four wins in the last six matches, while Gamba Osaka has struggled, recording two wins and four losses in the same period. The expected goals for Machida Zelvia stand at 2.30, compared to Gamba Osaka's 0.94, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Machida Zelvia, with a 10% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams have a 56% probability of scoring at least once. The confidence grade for this forecast is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Machida Zelvia and Gamba Osaka expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Machida Zelvia and Gamba Osaka attack and defence ratings
Machida Zelvia
Gamba Osaka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse — team news & stats
- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page
Before and after this match
Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 57.1% | 1.75 | +3.4% | 1.79 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.5% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 57.1% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Gamba Osaka | 19.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% |
| No | 44.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 45.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 32.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-1 | 9.3% |
Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka stats
Machida Zelvia and Gamba Osaka recent form
| Machida Zelvia |
DWWWWL |
| Gamba Osaka |
DWDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Machida Zelvia and Gamba Osaka season so far
Machida Zelvia record
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Gamba Osaka record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.7%, draw 24.6%, away 21.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.79 | 3.92 | 4.31 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.65 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.82 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 3.82 | 4.54 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.20 |