JEF United Chiba
vs
Avispa Fukuoka
Garuda Lions Prediction: Avispa Fukuoka
0 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Avispa Fukuoka is the favourite, not a value bet.
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka
| Probability | JEF United Chiba | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.7% | 28.9% | 28.4% |
| Market | 32.3% | 28.6% | 39.1% |
| Final | 34.9% | 28.7% | 36.4% |
| Edge | +2.6% | +0.1% | -2.7% |
Why Avispa Fukuoka
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.5% per unit staked (our 36.4% × 2.46 − 1).
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka match preview
JEF United Chiba faces Avispa Fukuoka in a J1 League matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive contest. JEF United Chiba has a 35% chance of winning, while Avispa Fukuoka slightly edges ahead with a 36% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1 in favor of Avispa Fukuoka, with both teams having a 52% chance of scoring.
In terms of recent form, JEF United Chiba has struggled with a record of D-L-D-D-L-L, while Avispa Fukuoka has also faced difficulties, recording L-L-L-W-L-L. The expected goals show JEF United Chiba at 1.42 and Avispa Fukuoka at 1.12, suggesting a tight match. The confidence grade for this fixture is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
JEF United Chiba and Avispa Fukuoka expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
JEF United Chiba and Avispa Fukuoka attack and defence ratings
JEF United Chiba
Avispa Fukuoka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page
- Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka
Before and after this match
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avispa Fukuoka | 36.4% | 2.75 | -2.7% | 2.46 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | JEF United Chiba | 34.9% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 36.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Avispa Fukuoka win | 11.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.7% | |
| Loss | 71.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka stats
JEF United Chiba and Avispa Fukuoka recent form
| JEF United Chiba |
DLDDLL |
| Avispa Fukuoka |
LLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
JEF United Chiba and Avispa Fukuoka season so far
JEF United Chiba record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avispa Fukuoka record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | JEF United Chiba | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Avispa Fukuoka | JEF United Chiba | J1 League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.3%, draw 28.6%, away 39.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.94 | 3.36 | 2.44 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.86 | 3.28 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.93 | 3.31 | 2.46 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.40 |