V-varen Nagasaki
vs
Tokyo Verdy
Garuda Lions Prediction: V-varen Nagasaki
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.08.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — V-varen Nagasaki is the favourite, not a value bet.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy overview
Garuda Lions analysis: V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy
| Probability | V-varen Nagasaki | Draw | Tokyo Verdy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.8% | 26.6% | 23.5% |
| Market | 42.5% | 28.8% | 28.8% |
| Final | 44.3% | 28.2% | 27.4% |
| Edge | +1.8% | -0.5% | -1.3% |
Why V-varen Nagasaki
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.08.
Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.7% per unit staked (our 44.3% × 2.24 − 1).
V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy match preview
V-varen Nagasaki enters the match against Tokyo Verdy with a probability of 49% to win, while a draw is forecasted at 27% and Tokyo Verdy at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of V-varen Nagasaki, with a 10% likelihood. The model suggests that there is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of expected goals, V-varen Nagasaki is projected to score 1.66, compared to Tokyo Verdy's 1.09. Recent form shows V-varen Nagasaki with mixed results, recording one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. Conversely, Tokyo Verdy has struggled, with one win, two draws, and three losses in their recent outings. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
V-varen Nagasaki and Tokyo Verdy expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.75
V-varen Nagasaki and Tokyo Verdy attack and defence ratings
V-varen Nagasaki
Tokyo Verdy
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse — team news & stats
- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats
- Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka
Before and after this match
V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | V-varen Nagasaki | 44.3% | 2.26 | +1.8% | 2.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | V-varen Nagasaki | 44.3% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Tokyo Verdy | 27.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% |
| No | 45.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | V-varen Nagasaki win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 50.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 9.5% |
V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy stats
V-varen Nagasaki and Tokyo Verdy recent form
| V-varen Nagasaki |
LWLDLD |
| Tokyo Verdy |
WDLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
V-varen Nagasaki and Tokyo Verdy season so far
V-varen Nagasaki record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Tokyo Verdy record
- They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.5%, draw 28.8%, away 28.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.24 | 3.38 | 3.28 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.29 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.20 |