JEF United Chiba
vs
Mito Hollyhock
Garuda Lions Prediction: JEF United Chiba
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.78.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock overview
Garuda Lions analysis: JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock
| Probability | JEF United Chiba | Draw | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.4% | 22.1% | 12.6% |
| Market | 47.1% | 27.2% | 25.7% |
| Final | 51.7% | 25.9% | 22.4% |
| Edge | +4.6% | -1.3% | -3.3% |
Why JEF United Chiba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices JEF United Chiba below our published probability: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.0% per unit staked (our 51.7% × 2.05 − 1).
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock match preview
JEF United Chiba enters this match with a probability of 65% to win against Mito Hollyhock, who has a 13% chance of victory. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-0, with an expected goals tally of 2.02 for JEF United Chiba and 0.78 for Mito Hollyhock. Recent form shows JEF United Chiba with a record of W-D-L-D-D-L, while Mito Hollyhock has struggled significantly, recording six consecutive losses.
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 53%, and both teams to score is estimated at 48%. In their last two encounters, JEF United Chiba has not secured a win, with two draws against Mito Hollyhock, who also has no wins in this matchup. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
JEF United Chiba and Mito Hollyhock expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
JEF United Chiba and Mito Hollyhock attack and defence ratings
JEF United Chiba
Mito Hollyhock
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | JEF United Chiba | 51.7% | 1.93 | +4.6% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | JEF United Chiba win | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | JEF United Chiba | 51.7% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Mito Hollyhock | 22.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.1% |
| No | 51.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | JEF United Chiba win | 41.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 34.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.4% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 1-1 | 10.5% |
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock stats
JEF United Chiba and Mito Hollyhock recent form
| JEF United Chiba |
WDLDDL |
| Mito Hollyhock |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
JEF United Chiba and Mito Hollyhock season so far
JEF United Chiba record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mito Hollyhock record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | JEF United Chiba | Mito Hollyhock | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Mito Hollyhock | JEF United Chiba | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Mito Hollyhock | JEF United Chiba | J2 League | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | JEF United Chiba | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-07 | JEF United Chiba | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League | 4-0 |
| 2024-03-24 | Mito Hollyhock | JEF United Chiba | J2 League | 0-0 |
| 2023-10-08 | JEF United Chiba | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League | 1-1 |
| 2023-06-11 | Mito Hollyhock | JEF United Chiba | J2 League | 4-1 |
| 2022-10-02 | Mito Hollyhock | JEF United Chiba | J2 League | 0-1 |
| 2022-05-29 | JEF United Chiba | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.1%, draw 27.2%, away 25.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.04 | 3.48 | 3.69 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.03 | 3.55 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.99 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 3.54 | 3.86 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 3.11 | 3.31 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .