Machida Zelvia
vs
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sanfrecce Hiroshima is the favourite, not a value bet.
Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| Probability | Machida Zelvia | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.3% | 29.2% | 35.5% |
| Market | 32.1% | 27.6% | 40.3% |
| Final | 32.9% | 28.0% | 39.1% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +0.4% | -1.2% |
Why Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (our 39.1% × 2.40 − 1).
Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima match preview
Machida Zelvia faces Sanfrecce Hiroshima in a J1 League matchup on November 8, 2026. The probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Machida Zelvia at 33%, a draw at 28%, and Sanfrecce Hiroshima slightly favored at 39%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to generate similar attacking outputs, with expected goals set at 1.27 for each side.
In terms of recent form, Machida Zelvia has recorded two draws followed by three consecutive wins, while Sanfrecce Hiroshima has achieved four wins, one loss, and another win in their last six matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 47%, and both teams scoring is projected at 53%. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Machida Zelvia and Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Machida Zelvia and Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack and defence ratings
Machida Zelvia
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki
- FC Tokyo vs Kashima — team news & stats
- Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale — match page
- Vissel Kobe vs Urawa
- Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka
- JEF United Chiba v Mito Hollyhock — match page
Before and after this match
Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 39.1% | 2.56 | -1.2% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 32.9% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 39.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.3% |
| No | 46.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 16.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 64.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-0 | 9.0% | |
| 0-1 | 8.7% |
Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima stats
Machida Zelvia and Sanfrecce Hiroshima recent form
| Machida Zelvia |
DDWWWW |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
WWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Machida Zelvia and Sanfrecce Hiroshima season so far
Machida Zelvia record
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima record
- They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-16 | Machida Zelvia | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-28 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-03 | Machida Zelvia | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.1%, draw 27.6%, away 40.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.98 | 3.47 | 2.36 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.27 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.90 | 3.38 | 2.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.94 | 3.44 | 2.40 |
| SBO | 2.61 | 3.07 | 2.36 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .