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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 14

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga

0 – 2 Full time

40′Alex Souza
43′Alex Souza
45′Hisashi Appiah Tawiah
45′Tomoki TakamineMateus
52′Sung-jun Yoon
58′Alex SouzaTakumi Kato
61′Yuya YamagishiHidemasa Koda
67′Takuya UchidaTsukasa Morishima
78′Yota SatoYuki Nogami
82′Tsukasa Morishima
90′Takumi KatoMasaya Okugawa
90′Haruki AraiShun Nagasawa
90′Shimpei FukuokaHiroto Morooka
90′Sung-jun YoonRyuma Nakano
90′Mateus

Toyota Stadium, ToyotaReferee: Keigo Sendachi

Nagoya Grampus 47%
Draw 26%
Kyoto Sanga 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 13
3 Shots on target 6
68 Possession % 32
4 Corners 1
15 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 2
4 Saves 3
504 Accurate passes 196

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNagoya GrampusDrawKyoto Sanga
Model33.7%27.6%38.7%
Market51.1%24.9%24.0%
Final46.7%25.6%27.7%
Edge-4.3%+0.7%+3.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Nagoya Grampus ↓ / Kyoto Sanga → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Nagoya Grampus and Kyoto Sanga expected goals

Nagoya Grampus 1.35
Kyoto Sanga 1.46

Total expected goals: 2.81

Nagoya Grampus and Kyoto Sanga attack and defence ratings

Nagoya Grampus

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Kyoto Sanga

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga: result vs prediction

Nagoya Grampus 0 – 2 Kyoto Sanga

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Nagoya Grampus 46.7% 2.14 -4.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.1% 1.88 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.9% 1.73 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.4% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 66.3% 1.51 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Nagoya Grampus46.7%
Draw25.6%
Kyoto Sanga27.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.1%
Under 2.546.9%
Both teams to scoreYes57.9%
No42.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.3%
12 (either side)74.4%
X2 (draw or away)53.3%
Handicap -1Nagoya Grampus win15.6%
Push (exactly one goal)18.0%
Loss66.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.1%
1-28.7%
2-18.0%

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga stats

Nagoya Grampus and Kyoto Sanga recent form

newest first
Nagoya Grampus LDDWWL
Kyoto Sanga WDDLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Nagoya Grampus and Kyoto Sanga going into this match

league record before kick-off

Nagoya Grampus record

  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kyoto Sanga record

  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Nagoya Grampus wins 4Draws 3Kyoto Sanga wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-10Nagoya GrampusKyoto SangaJ1 League3-0
2026-03-22Kyoto SangaNagoya GrampusJ1 League1-1
2025-08-10Nagoya GrampusKyoto SangaJ1 League1-2
2025-05-11Kyoto SangaNagoya GrampusJ1 League1-1
2024-08-07Kyoto SangaNagoya GrampusJ1 League3-2
2024-05-26Nagoya GrampusKyoto SangaJ1 League1-1
2023-07-16Kyoto SangaNagoya GrampusJ1 League2-1
2023-02-25Nagoya GrampusKyoto SangaJ1 League1-0
2022-10-08Kyoto SangaNagoya GrampusJ1 League1-1
2022-06-11Kyoto SangaNagoya GrampusJ-League Cup0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.1%, draw 24.9%, away 24.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.86 3.88 3.98
Bet365 1.80 3.80 4.00
BetVictor 1.85 3.80 4.00
Betano 1.85 3.70 3.90
Betfair 1.85 3.75 3.80
Dafabet 1.87 3.90 4.00
Marathonbet 1.81 3.78 3.88
Pinnacle 1.88 3.80 4.10
SBO 1.84 3.33 3.50
William Hill 1.80 3.60 3.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.85 ▲ +0.04
X 3.79 ▼ -0.04
2 3.94 ▲ +0.02

13 snapshots recorded, from .