Cerezo Osaka
vs
JEF United Chiba
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cerezo Osaka
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba
| Probability | Cerezo Osaka | Draw | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 28.2% | 24.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.7% | 28.2% | 24.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Cerezo Osaka
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.01.
Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba match preview
Cerezo Osaka faces JEF United Chiba in the J1 League with a predicted probability of 48% for a home win, while a draw stands at 28% and an away win for JEF United Chiba at 24%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, with a probability of 11%. The expected goals for Cerezo Osaka are 1.51, compared to 1.02 for JEF United Chiba, indicating a stronger offensive expectation for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Cerezo Osaka has recorded a sequence of results with their latest matches being a loss, draw, win, draw, loss, and draw. Meanwhile, JEF United Chiba's recent performances include two draws, followed by two losses, and a win in their last match. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 46%, and both teams scoring has a likelihood of 51%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cerezo Osaka and JEF United Chiba expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Cerezo Osaka and JEF United Chiba attack and defence ratings
Cerezo Osaka
JEF United Chiba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka
- Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — match page
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga
- Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos
- Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki — team news & stats
- FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerezo Osaka | 47.7% | 2.09 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerezo Osaka | 47.7% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| JEF United Chiba | 24.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.9% |
| No | 49.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cerezo Osaka win | 24.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba stats
Cerezo Osaka and JEF United Chiba recent form
| Cerezo Osaka |
LDWDLD |
| JEF United Chiba |
DDLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cerezo Osaka and JEF United Chiba season so far
Cerezo Osaka record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
JEF United Chiba record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.