Urawa
vs
JEF United Chiba
Garuda Lions Prediction: Urawa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Urawa vs JEF United Chiba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Urawa vs JEF United Chiba
| Probability | Urawa | Draw | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.4% | 25.2% | 21.4% |
| Market | 55.8% | 23.9% | 20.3% |
| Final | 55.2% | 24.2% | 20.6% |
| Edge | -2.5% | +1.3% | +1.1% |
Why Urawa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Urawa vs JEF United Chiba match preview
Urawa enters the match against JEF United Chiba with a 55% probability of winning, while the chances of a draw stand at 23% and JEF United Chiba at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Urawa, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Urawa are 2.07, compared to 1.25 for JEF United Chiba, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from Urawa.
In terms of recent form, Urawa has recorded a mixed set of results, with three wins in their last six matches (L-W-W-L-W-W). Conversely, JEF United Chiba has struggled, managing only one win in their last six games (D-L-L-D-W-L). Our model suggests a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 63%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Urawa and JEF United Chiba expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Urawa and JEF United Chiba attack and defence ratings
Urawa
JEF United Chiba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka
- FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats
- Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — match page
- Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Urawa vs JEF United Chiba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Urawa | 55.2% | 1.81 | -2.5% | 1.71 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Urawa | 55.2% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| JEF United Chiba | 20.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% |
| No | 43.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Urawa win | 30.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 9.1% |
Urawa vs JEF United Chiba stats
Urawa and JEF United Chiba recent form
| Urawa |
WLWWLW |
| JEF United Chiba |
DDLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Urawa and JEF United Chiba season so far
Urawa record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
JEF United Chiba record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Urawa vs JEF United Chiba head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Urawa | JEF United Chiba | J1 League | 2-0 |
| 2026-02-07 | JEF United Chiba | Urawa | J1 League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Urawa vs JEF United Chiba odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.8%, draw 23.9%, away 20.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 4.00 | 4.72 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.98 | 4.74 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .