Kenyan Premier League Β· Β·Matchday 1

3K vs Mara Sugar

Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw

0 – 0 Predicted score Β· 20% model probability

3K 32%
Draw 37%
Mara Sugar 31%

Confidence: Low  Β·  model-only, no market odds

Chance of a draw
37%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
80%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
33%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 0
20% of simulated outcomes

3K vs Mara Sugar overview

Garuda Lions analysis: 3K vs Mara Sugar

model vs market on the 1X2
Probability3KDrawMara Sugar
Model31.6%37.3%31.2%
Marketβ€”β€”β€”
Final31.6%37.3%31.2%
Edgeβ€”β€”β€”

Confidence: Low

3K vs Mara Sugar match preview

In the upcoming match between 3K and Mara Sugar, the probabilities indicate a closely contested game, with 3K at 32%, a draw at 37%, and Mara Sugar at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-0, which has a 20% probability. Both teams are expected to have similar performances, with expected goals of 0.83 for 3K and 0.82 for Mara Sugar.

Mara Sugar's recent form shows a mixed bag with results of L-D-L-W-L-W, while there is no available recent form data for 3K. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is assessed at 23%, and the probability of both teams scoring stands at 33%. The overall confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

3K ↓ / Mara Sugar β†’ 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 20% 14% 1 15% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 80%
2+ goals 50%
3+ goals 23%
No goals 20%

3K and Mara Sugar expected goals

3K 0.83
Mara Sugar 0.82

Total expected goals: 1.65

3K and Mara Sugar attack and defence ratings

3K

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Mara Sugar

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Kenyan Premier League

Before and after this match

3K vs Mara Sugar markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Draw 37.3% 2.68 β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 77.0% 1.30 β€” β€”
Both teams to score No 67.1% 1.49 β€” β€”
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 68.8% 1.45 β€” β€”
Handicap -1 Loss 68.4% 1.46 β€” β€”

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X23K31.6%
Draw37.3%
Mara Sugar31.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.523.0%
Under 2.577.0%
Both teams to scoreYes32.9%
No67.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.8%
12 (either side)62.7%
X2 (draw or away)68.4%
Handicap -13K win10.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.7%
Loss68.4%
Correct score (top 3)0-020.5%
1-014.6%
0-114.5%

3K vs Mara Sugar stats

3K and Mara Sugar recent form

newest first
3K no matches on record
Mara Sugar LDLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

3K vs Mara Sugar head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards β€” these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

3K vs Mara Sugar odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.

Prediction snapshot X Draw Predicted score 0 – 0 Low Bet Now
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