Mara Sugar
vs
Mombasa Elite
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite
| Probability | Mara Sugar | Draw | Mombasa Elite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.7% | 35.1% | 31.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 33.7% | 35.1% | 31.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite match preview
Mara Sugar and Mombasa Elite are set to clash in the Kenyan Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 19, 2026. According to our model, Mara Sugar has a 34% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 35% and Mombasa Elite at 31%. The most likely scoreline is a 0-0 draw, projected at 17%. Both teams have struggled to find the back of the net, with expected goals of 0.94 for Mara Sugar and 0.90 for Mombasa Elite.
Recent form shows Mara Sugar with a record of D-L-D-L-W-L, while Mombasa Elite comes off a win after a loss. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 28%, and both teams scoring is predicted at 38%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mara Sugar and Mombasa Elite expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.84
Mara Sugar and Mombasa Elite attack and defence ratings
Mara Sugar
Mombasa Elite
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 35.1% | 2.85 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mara Sugar | 33.7% |
| Draw | 35.1% | |
| Mombasa Elite | 31.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.5% |
| No | 62.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mara Sugar win | 12.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 66.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.2% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 1-0 | 13.6% |
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite stats
Mara Sugar and Mombasa Elite recent form
| Mara Sugar |
DLDLWL |
| Mombasa Elite |
LW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.