Mombasa Elite
vs
Homeboyz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mombasa Elite
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz
| Probability | Mombasa Elite | Draw | Homeboyz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.7% | 29.8% | 28.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.7% | 29.8% | 28.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mombasa Elite
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 1 vs 0 for the opposition.
Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz match preview
Mombasa Elite is set to face Homeboyz in the Kenyan Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 13, 2026. According to our model, Mombasa Elite has a 42% probability of winning, while Homeboyz sits at 28%, and a draw is estimated at 30%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Mombasa Elite, with an 11% likelihood. The expected goals are 1.35 for Mombasa Elite and 1.07 for Homeboyz.
In terms of recent form, Mombasa Elite comes off a win, while Homeboyz has struggled with two draws and four losses in their last six matches. Our model indicates a 43% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 50% probability that both teams will score. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mombasa Elite and Homeboyz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Mombasa Elite and Homeboyz attack and defence ratings
Mombasa Elite
Homeboyz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mombasa Elite | 41.7% | 2.40 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mombasa Elite | 41.7% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Homeboyz | 28.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.9% |
| No | 50.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mombasa Elite win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 58.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | |
| 0-0 | 10.2% |
Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz stats
Mombasa Elite and Homeboyz recent form
| Mombasa Elite |
W |
| Homeboyz |
DDLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.