Migori Youth
vs
Police
Garuda Lions Prediction: Police
0 – 1 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Migori Youth vs Police overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Migori Youth vs Police
| Probability | Migori Youth | Draw | Police |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.6% | 36.0% | 40.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 23.6% | 36.0% | 40.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Police
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.00 vs 0.70.
Migori Youth vs Police match preview
Migori Youth will face Police in the Kenyan Premier League on October 11, 2026. According to our model, Migori Youth has a 24% chance of winning, while Police is favored with a 40% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 17%. Expected goals for Migori Youth stand at 0.70, compared to Police's 1.00.
In terms of recent form, Police has recorded four draws followed by a win and another draw, indicating a struggle to secure victories. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is estimated at 24%, and both teams scoring has a probability of 33%. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, suggesting moderate certainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Migori Youth and Police expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.70
Migori Youth and Police attack and defence ratings
Migori Youth
Police
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Migori Youth vs Police markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 40.4% | 2.47 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Migori Youth | 23.6% |
| Draw | 36.0% | |
| Police | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 75.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.1% |
| No | 66.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Police win | 16.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 59.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 19.5% |
| 0-1 | 17.0% | |
| 1-1 | 14.1% |
Migori Youth vs Police stats
Migori Youth and Police recent form
| Migori Youth |
no matches on record |
| Police |
DDDDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.