Nairobi United
vs
KCB
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nairobi United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Nairobi United vs KCB overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nairobi United vs KCB
| Probability | Nairobi United | Draw | KCB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.7% | 29.5% | 26.8% |
| Market | 46.4% | 30.8% | 22.8% |
| Final | 45.7% | 30.5% | 23.8% |
| Edge | -2.7% | -1.3% | +4.0% |
Why Nairobi United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Nairobi United vs KCB match preview
Nairobi United is set to face KCB in the Kenyan Premier League, with a probability of winning at 47%, while KCB stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Nairobi United, with an expected goals tally of 1.39 for Nairobi United compared to KCB's 1.04. The recent form shows Nairobi United with two wins and a draw in their last three matches, while KCB has won two of their last six.
In their last four encounters, Nairobi United has secured one victory, while KCB also has one win, alongside two draws. The probabilities for a draw stand at 30%, and there is a 50% chance that both teams will score. With a confidence grade of C, this match promises to be competitive as both teams vie for crucial points.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nairobi United and KCB expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Nairobi United and KCB attack and defence ratings
Nairobi United
KCB
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nairobi United vs KCB markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 45.7% | 2.19 | -2.7% | 2.09 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 45.7% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| KCB | 23.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.7% |
| No | 50.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nairobi United win | 21.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 56.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.1% |
Nairobi United vs KCB stats
Nairobi United and KCB recent form
| Nairobi United |
WDDLWW |
| KCB |
WWLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nairobi United vs KCB head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Nairobi United | KCB | Shield Cup | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Nairobi United | KCB | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-15 | KCB | Nairobi United | Kenyan Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-12 | Nairobi United | KCB | Shield Cup | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nairobi United vs KCB odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.4%, draw 30.8%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.93 | 2.92 | 4.03 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 2.75 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 2.90 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.02 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 2.88 | 3.94 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 2.81 | 3.61 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .