Nairobi United
vs
KCB
2 – 2 Full time
| 39′ | Nairobi United | ||
| 54′ | KCB | ||
| 78′ | Nairobi United | ||
| 90′ | KCB |
Nairobi United vs KCB overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nairobi United vs KCB
| Probability | Nairobi United | Draw | KCB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.7% | 29.5% | 26.8% |
| Market | 47.6% | 30.0% | 22.4% |
| Final | 46.6% | 29.9% | 23.5% |
| Edge | -1.0% | -0.1% | +1.1% |
Why Nairobi United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nairobi United and KCB expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.43
Nairobi United and KCB attack and defence ratings
Nairobi United
KCB
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nairobi United vs KCB: result vs prediction
Nairobi United 2 – 2 KCB
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nairobi United vs KCB markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 46.6% | 2.14 | -1.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 46.6% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| KCB | 23.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.8% |
| No | 50.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nairobi United win | 21.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 56.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.1% |
Nairobi United vs KCB stats
Nairobi United and KCB recent form
| Nairobi United |
WDDLWW |
| KCB |
WWLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nairobi United vs KCB head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Nairobi United | KCB | Shield Cup | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Nairobi United | KCB | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-15 | KCB | Nairobi United | Kenyan Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-12 | Nairobi United | KCB | Shield Cup | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nairobi United vs KCB odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.6%, draw 30.0%, away 22.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 2.97 | 4.18 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 2.75 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 2.92 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 3.05 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.86 | 2.97 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 2.81 | 3.61 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .