Mathare United
vs
APS Bomet
0 – 0 Full time
Mathare United vs APS Bomet overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mathare United vs APS Bomet
| Probability | Mathare United | Draw | APS Bomet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.0% | 31.2% | 50.8% |
| Market | 34.0% | 31.4% | 34.6% |
| Final | 30.0% | 31.4% | 38.6% |
| Edge | -4.0% | -0.1% | +4.1% |
Why APS Bomet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices APS Bomet below our published probability: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mathare United and APS Bomet expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.99
Mathare United and APS Bomet attack and defence ratings
Mathare United
APS Bomet
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mathare United vs APS Bomet: result vs prediction
Mathare United 0 – 0 APS Bomet
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mathare United vs APS Bomet markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | APS Bomet | 38.6% | 2.59 | +4.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mathare United | 30.0% |
| Draw | 31.4% | |
| APS Bomet | 38.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.2% |
| No | 62.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | APS Bomet win | 24.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.0% | |
| Loss | 49.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 16.7% |
| 0-0 | 14.9% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Mathare United vs APS Bomet stats
Mathare United and APS Bomet recent form
| Mathare United |
WLWLDL |
| APS Bomet |
DWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mathare United vs APS Bomet head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Mathare United | APS Bomet | Kenyan Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-09 | APS Bomet | Mathare United | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mathare United vs APS Bomet odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.0%, draw 31.4%, away 34.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 2.85 | 2.54 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 2.82 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 2.90 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 2.95 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.65 | 2.85 | 2.54 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .