Mathare United
vs
APS Bomet
Garuda Lions Prediction: APS Bomet
0 – 1 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Mathare United vs APS Bomet overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mathare United vs APS Bomet
| Probability | Mathare United | Draw | APS Bomet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.0% | 31.2% | 50.8% |
| Market | 33.5% | 31.3% | 35.2% |
| Final | 29.6% | 31.3% | 39.1% |
| Edge | -15.5% | -0.1% | +15.6% |
Why APS Bomet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices APS Bomet below the model: +15.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 3.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Mathare United vs APS Bomet match preview
Mathare United faces APS Bomet in the Kenyan Premier League with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. According to our model, Mathare United has an 18% probability of winning, while APS Bomet stands at 51%. The expected goals for Mathare United is 0.68, compared to 1.31 for APS Bomet. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 17%.
In terms of recent form, Mathare United has recorded one win, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches, while APS Bomet is on a strong run with five consecutive wins and one draw. The teams have met twice recently, with Mathare United failing to secure a win and APS Bomet winning once. The probability of both teams scoring is estimated at 37%, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 32%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mathare United and APS Bomet expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.99
Mathare United and APS Bomet attack and defence ratings
Mathare United
APS Bomet
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mathare United vs APS Bomet markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | APS Bomet | 39.1% | 2.56 | +15.6% | 3.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mathare United | 29.6% |
| Draw | 31.3% | |
| APS Bomet | 39.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.2% |
| No | 62.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | APS Bomet win | 24.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.0% | |
| Loss | 49.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 16.7% |
| 0-0 | 14.9% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Mathare United vs APS Bomet stats
Mathare United and APS Bomet recent form
| Mathare United |
WLWLDL |
| APS Bomet |
DWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mathare United vs APS Bomet head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Mathare United | APS Bomet | Kenyan Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-09 | APS Bomet | Mathare United | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mathare United vs APS Bomet odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.5%, draw 31.3%, away 35.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.68 | 2.84 | 2.52 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 2.87 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 2.88 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 2.95 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.68 | 2.84 | 2.52 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .