Garuda Lions
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Kenyan Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 2

APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia

0 – 1 Full time

APS Bomet 56%
Draw 29%
GOR Mahia 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAPS BometDrawGOR Mahia
Model56.4%29.3%14.3%
Market———
Final56.4%29.3%14.3%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why APS Bomet

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.59.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

APS Bomet ↓ / GOR Mahia → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 1 18% 12% 2 14% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 14%

APS Bomet and GOR Mahia expected goals

APS Bomet 1.43
GOR Mahia 0.59

Total expected goals: 2.02

APS Bomet and GOR Mahia attack and defence ratings

APS Bomet

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.52 -48%

GOR Mahia

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 1.29 +29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia: result vs prediction

APS Bomet 0 – 1 GOR Mahia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Kenyan Premier League

Before and after this match

APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 APS Bomet 56.4% 1.77 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.1% 1.49 — —
Both teams to score No 64.9% 1.54 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.7% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.6% 2.29 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2APS Bomet56.4%
Draw29.3%
GOR Mahia14.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.9%
Under 2.567.1%
Both teams to scoreYes35.1%
No64.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.7%
12 (either side)70.7%
X2 (draw or away)43.6%
Handicap -1APS Bomet win29.4%
Push (exactly one goal)27.0%
Loss43.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-017.8%
0-014.4%
2-013.5%

APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia stats

APS Bomet and GOR Mahia recent form

newest first
APS Bomet DDWWWW
GOR Mahia WLLLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1APS Bomet wins 0Draws 1GOR Mahia wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-15APS BometGOR MahiaKenyan Premier League1-2
2025-11-25GOR MahiaAPS BometKenyan Premier League1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.