Nairobi United
vs
APS Bomet
Garuda Lions Prediction: APS Bomet
0 – 1 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Nairobi United vs APS Bomet overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nairobi United vs APS Bomet
| Probability | Nairobi United | Draw | APS Bomet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.4% | 37.2% | 38.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.4% | 37.2% | 38.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why APS Bomet
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Nairobi United vs APS Bomet match preview
Nairobi United faces APS Bomet in a Kenyan Premier League match on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Nairobi United has a 24% chance of winning, while APS Bomet is slightly favored at 38%, with a 37% probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 17%. Expected goals are estimated at 0.69 for Nairobi United and 0.93 for APS Bomet, indicating a tight contest.
In terms of recent form, Nairobi United has recorded two draws and one win in their last five matches, while APS Bomet shows stronger momentum with three wins and two draws. The head-to-head record favors APS Bomet, who has one win and one draw against Nairobi United in their last two encounters. Both teams have a 31% chance of scoring, with only a 22% likelihood of the match featuring over 2.5 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nairobi United and APS Bomet expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.62
Nairobi United and APS Bomet attack and defence ratings
Nairobi United
APS Bomet
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nairobi United vs APS Bomet markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | APS Bomet | 38.4% | 2.60 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 77.8% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 24.4% |
| Draw | 37.2% | |
| APS Bomet | 38.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 77.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.4% |
| No | 68.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 62.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | APS Bomet win | 14.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 61.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 21.1% |
| 0-1 | 17.2% | |
| 1-1 | 13.9% |
Nairobi United vs APS Bomet stats
Nairobi United and APS Bomet recent form
| Nairobi United |
DDWDDL |
| APS Bomet |
LDDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nairobi United vs APS Bomet head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | APS Bomet | Nairobi United | Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Nairobi United | APS Bomet | Kenyan Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-16 | APS Bomet | Nairobi United | Super League | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-17 | Nairobi United | APS Bomet | Super League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.