APS Bomet
vs
3K
Garuda Lions Prediction: APS Bomet
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.16 vs 0.65.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
APS Bomet vs 3K overview
Garuda Lions analysis: APS Bomet vs 3K
| Probability | APS Bomet | Draw | 3K |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.9% | 33.6% | 19.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.9% | 33.6% | 19.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why APS Bomet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.16 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
APS Bomet vs 3K match preview
In the upcoming match between APS Bomet and 3K in the Kenyan Premier League, APS Bomet holds a 47% probability of winning, while 3K is at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of APS Bomet, with an 18% likelihood. The expected goals for APS Bomet are 1.16, compared to 0.65 for 3K, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Both teams have shown varying recent form, with APS Bomet recording two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while 3K has drawn their last two fixtures. The probability of a draw stands at 34%, and there is a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
APS Bomet and 3K expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.81
APS Bomet and 3K attack and defence ratings
APS Bomet
3K
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
APS Bomet vs 3K markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | APS Bomet | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | APS Bomet | 46.9% |
| Draw | 33.6% | |
| 3K | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.1% |
| No | 65.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | APS Bomet win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.7% |
| 0-0 | 17.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |