Police
vs
Ulinzi Stars
Garuda Lions Prediction: Police
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Police vs Ulinzi Stars overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Police vs Ulinzi Stars
| Probability | Police | Draw | Ulinzi Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.5% | 33.8% | 28.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.5% | 33.8% | 28.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Police vs Ulinzi Stars match preview
In the upcoming Kenyan Premier League match, Police faces Ulinzi Stars with probabilities indicating a 37% chance of a Police victory, a 34% likelihood of a draw, and a 29% chance for Ulinzi Stars to win. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Police, with an expected goals tally of 1.06 for Police and 0.89 for Ulinzi Stars.
Recent form shows Police struggling with five consecutive matches without a win (L-D-D-D-D-D), while Ulinzi Stars has seen mixed results with two wins and one loss in their last three outings (D-L-W-W-W-L). The head-to-head record in their last two encounters shows no wins for either team, with both matches ending in draws. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Police and Ulinzi Stars expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.95
Police and Ulinzi Stars attack and defence ratings
Police
Ulinzi Stars
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Police vs Ulinzi Stars markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 37.5% | 2.67 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 37.5% |
| Draw | 33.8% | |
| Ulinzi Stars | 28.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.0% |
| No | 60.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Police win | 15.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 62.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.5% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 1-0 | 13.7% |
Police vs Ulinzi Stars stats
Police and Ulinzi Stars recent form
| Police |
LDDDDD |
| Ulinzi Stars |
DLWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Police vs Ulinzi Stars head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Ulinzi Stars | Police | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-01 | Police | Ulinzi Stars | Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.