Murang'a SEAL
vs
Nairobi United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nairobi United
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United
| Probability | Murang'a SEAL | Draw | Nairobi United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.9% | 26.1% | 40.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 33.9% | 26.1% | 40.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United match preview
Murang'a SEAL faces Nairobi United in an intriguing Kenyan Premier League matchup. According to our model, Murang'a SEAL has a 34% chance of winning, while Nairobi United is favored at 40%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.47 for Murang'a SEAL and 1.61 for Nairobi United. Both teams have shown scoring potential, with a 63% probability of both teams finding the net and a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Murang'a SEAL has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, whereas Nairobi United has drawn four of their last five games, with one loss. Historically, Murang'a SEAL has yet to secure a win against Nairobi United, with one draw and one loss in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C, indicating a moderate level of certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Murang'a SEAL and Nairobi United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
Murang'a SEAL and Nairobi United attack and defence ratings
Murang'a SEAL
Nairobi United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 40.1% | 2.50 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Murang'a SEAL | 33.9% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Nairobi United | 40.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% |
| No | 37.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nairobi United win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 59.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United stats
Murang'a SEAL and Nairobi United recent form
| Murang'a SEAL |
WLWWLW |
| Nairobi United |
DDWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Murang'a SEAL | Nairobi United | Kenyan Premier League | 2-4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Nairobi United | Murang'a SEAL | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.