Mathare United
vs
Tusker
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 22% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mathare United vs Tusker overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mathare United vs Tusker
| Probability | Mathare United | Draw | Tusker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.4% | 37.9% | 33.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.4% | 37.9% | 33.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Mathare United vs Tusker match preview
Mathare United faces Tusker in the Kenyan Premier League with both teams having mixed recent form. Mathare United's last five matches show two wins, one draw, and two losses, while Tusker has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss. According to our model, Mathare United has a 28% chance of winning, a 38% chance of a draw, and Tusker stands at 34%. The expected goals are 0.75 for Mathare United and 0.85 for Tusker, indicating a closely contested match.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-0, with a 22% probability. Additionally, the chances for over 2.5 goals are at 22%, and both teams to score is estimated at 31%. In their last two encounters, Mathare United has one win and one draw against Tusker, who has yet to secure a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mathare United and Tusker expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.60
Mathare United and Tusker attack and defence ratings
Mathare United
Tusker
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mathare United vs Tusker markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 37.9% | 2.64 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 78.4% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mathare United | 28.4% |
| Draw | 37.9% | |
| Tusker | 33.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 21.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 78.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.4% |
| No | 68.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 62.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tusker win | 11.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 66.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 21.6% |
| 0-1 | 15.8% | |
| 1-1 | 14.1% |
Mathare United vs Tusker stats
Mathare United and Tusker recent form
| Mathare United |
LDWLWL |
| Tusker |
LWWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mathare United vs Tusker head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Mathare United | Tusker | Kenyan Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-10-01 | Tusker | Mathare United | Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.