Tusker
vs
Mara Sugar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 24% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Tusker vs Mara Sugar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tusker vs Mara Sugar
| Probability | Tusker | Draw | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.5% | 39.5% | 32.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.5% | 39.5% | 32.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Tusker vs Mara Sugar match preview
Tusker and Mara Sugar are set to clash in the Kenyan Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for November 2, 2026. According to our model, Tusker has a 28% chance of winning, while a draw is estimated at 40% and Mara Sugar at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a probability of 24%. Expected goals for Tusker stand at 0.71, while Mara Sugar is slightly ahead at 0.77.
In terms of recent form, Tusker has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Mara Sugar has drawn four and won one of their last five. The head-to-head record from their last two encounters shows each team with one victory. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tusker and Mara Sugar expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.48
Tusker and Mara Sugar attack and defence ratings
Tusker
Mara Sugar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tusker vs Mara Sugar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 39.5% | 2.53 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tusker | 28.5% |
| Draw | 39.5% | |
| Mara Sugar | 32.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 18.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 81.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.5% |
| No | 71.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 60.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mara Sugar win | 10.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 68.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 24.1% |
| 0-1 | 16.3% | |
| 1-0 | 14.9% |
Tusker vs Mara Sugar stats
Tusker and Mara Sugar recent form
| Tusker |
LDLWWD |
| Mara Sugar |
DDWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tusker vs Mara Sugar head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Tusker | Mara Sugar | Kenyan Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Mara Sugar | Tusker | Kenyan Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.