Migori Youth
vs
Mombasa Elite
Garuda Lions Prediction: Migori Youth
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.12 vs 0.74.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite
| Probability | Migori Youth | Draw | Mombasa Elite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.0% | 34.0% | 23.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.0% | 34.0% | 23.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Migori Youth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.12 vs 0.74.
Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite match preview
Migori Youth hosts Mombasa Elite in a Kenyan Premier League matchup, with Migori Youth holding a 43% probability of winning, while Mombasa Elite stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Migori Youth, which has a 16% likelihood. Expected goals are 1.12 for Migori Youth compared to 0.74 for Mombasa Elite, indicating a stronger attacking performance anticipated from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Migori Youth has drawn their last three matches, while Mombasa Elite has experienced a mix of results with one win and three losses in their previous five games. Historically, the last nine encounters show Migori Youth with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 wins for Mombasa Elite, suggesting a competitive rivalry. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Migori Youth and Mombasa Elite expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.86
Migori Youth and Mombasa Elite attack and defence ratings
Migori Youth
Mombasa Elite
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Migori Youth | 43.0% | 2.33 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Migori Youth | 43.0% |
| Draw | 34.0% | |
| Mombasa Elite | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.6% |
| No | 63.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Migori Youth win | 18.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 57.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.8% |
| 1-0 | 16.1% | |
| 1-1 | 14.2% |
Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite stats
Migori Youth and Mombasa Elite recent form
| Migori Youth |
DDD |
| Mombasa Elite |
LDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.
Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Mombasa Elite | Migori Youth | Super League | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Migori Youth | Mombasa Elite | Super League | 3-2 |
| 2025-04-19 | Mombasa Elite | Migori Youth | Super League | 4-1 |
| 2025-01-26 | Migori Youth | Mombasa Elite | Super League | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-10 | Migori Youth | Mombasa Elite | Super League | 0-0 |
| 2023-11-19 | Mombasa Elite | Migori Youth | Super League | 2-4 |
| 2023-04-30 | Migori Youth | Mombasa Elite | Super League | 2-1 |
| 2023-01-07 | Mombasa Elite | Migori Youth | Super League | 1-1 |
| 2022-07-02 | Migori Youth | Mombasa Elite | Super League | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.