Nairobi United
vs
Bandari
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nairobi United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.03 vs 0.66.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Nairobi United vs Bandari overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nairobi United vs Bandari
| Probability | Nairobi United | Draw | Bandari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.3% | 35.9% | 21.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.3% | 35.9% | 21.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nairobi United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.03 vs 0.66.
Nairobi United vs Bandari match preview
Nairobi United faces Bandari in the Kenyan Premier League with a kickoff scheduled for November 1, 2026. According to our model, Nairobi United has a 42% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 36% and Bandari at 22%. The expected goals for Nairobi United are 1.03, compared to Bandari's 0.66, suggesting a tighter contest than the probabilities might indicate. The most likely scoreline forecasted is 1-0 in favor of Nairobi United, occurring at an 18% likelihood.
Recent form shows Nairobi United with a record of L-D-D-D-W-D, while Bandari has D-L-D-D-L-W. In their last two encounters, Nairobi United has secured one win and one draw against Bandari, who has yet to register a victory in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating moderate certainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nairobi United and Bandari expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.68
Nairobi United and Bandari attack and defence ratings
Nairobi United
Bandari
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nairobi United vs Bandari markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 42.3% |
| Draw | 35.9% | |
| Bandari | 21.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.1% |
| No | 67.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nairobi United win | 17.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 57.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 19.9% |
| 1-0 | 17.8% | |
| 1-1 | 13.8% |
Nairobi United vs Bandari stats
Nairobi United and Bandari recent form
| Nairobi United |
LDDDWD |
| Bandari |
DLDDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nairobi United vs Bandari head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | Bandari | Nairobi United | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-04 | Nairobi United | Bandari | Kenyan Premier League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.