GOR Mahia
vs
Nairobi United
Garuda Lions Prediction: GOR Mahia
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United
| Probability | GOR Mahia | Draw | Nairobi United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.4% | 30.3% | 32.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.4% | 30.3% | 32.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why GOR Mahia
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United match preview
GOR Mahia will face Nairobi United in the Kenyan Premier League on November 8, 2026. According to our model, GOR Mahia has a 37% chance of winning, while Nairobi United has a 32% probability of victory, with a 30% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of GOR Mahia, occurring at a 10% probability. The expected goals for GOR Mahia stand at 1.25, slightly higher than Nairobi United's 1.14.
In terms of recent form, GOR Mahia has recorded three wins followed by two losses, while Nairobi United has had a mixed performance with one win, three draws, and two losses in their last six matches. Historically, in their last two encounters, GOR Mahia has yet to secure a win against Nairobi United, who has one victory and one draw. The model indicates a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
GOR Mahia and Nairobi United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
GOR Mahia and Nairobi United attack and defence ratings
GOR Mahia
Nairobi United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GOR Mahia | 37.4% | 2.67 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.7% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GOR Mahia | 37.4% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Nairobi United | 32.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.9% |
| No | 50.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | GOR Mahia win | 17.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 62.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 10.4% | |
| 1-0 | 10.1% |
GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United stats
GOR Mahia and Nairobi United recent form
| GOR Mahia |
WWWWLL |
| Nairobi United |
LDDDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | GOR Mahia | Nairobi United | Kenyan Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Nairobi United | GOR Mahia | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.