Homeboyz
vs
Police
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 21% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Homeboyz vs Police overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Homeboyz vs Police
| Probability | Homeboyz | Draw | Police |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.9% | 37.3% | 36.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 25.9% | 37.3% | 36.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Homeboyz vs Police match preview
In the upcoming Kenyan Premier League match between Homeboyz and Police, the probabilities indicate a closely contested encounter, with Homeboyz at 26% to win, while both a draw and a Police victory are at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is a 0-0 draw, occurring with a probability of 21%. The expected goals for Homeboyz stand at 0.72, while Police is slightly higher at 0.91.
Recent form shows that Homeboyz has struggled with one win in their last six matches (L-D-W-D-D-L), whereas Police has been more consistent, with one win in their last six as well (W-D-L-D-D-D). The head-to-head record reveals that in their last two encounters, neither team has secured a win, resulting in two draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Homeboyz and Police expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.63
Homeboyz and Police attack and defence ratings
Homeboyz
Police
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Homeboyz vs Police markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 37.3% | 2.68 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Homeboyz | 25.9% |
| Draw | 37.3% | |
| Police | 36.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 77.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.9% |
| No | 68.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 62.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Police win | 13.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 63.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.9% |
| 0-1 | 16.6% | |
| 1-1 | 14.1% |
Homeboyz vs Police stats
Homeboyz vs Police head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Police | Homeboyz | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-22 | Homeboyz | Police | Kenyan Premier League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.